It's time to preview the Breeder's Cup Marathon.
I'm going to sum it all up with one statement, ready?
They are all Twix bars.
And there you have it, good luck with this second Breeder's Cup race on the Friday card!
I suppose I owe some semblance of an explanation. Then, perhaps, I'll run through the horses as well. We'll see.
Back to the Twix bar, watch this clip:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72gsdsL26po&feature=relmfu
Seinfeld is such a treat, all the time, every time. I legitimately just wasted half an hour watching other Seinfeld clips, despite the fact that it took me all but 30 seconds to find the one I was looking for.
Twix Bar.
The Marathon is just a big candy lineup and the Breeder's Cup just laughs at anyone who tries to decipher which candy bar is which. Why? Because they are all Twix bars!!!!!!!
None of these horses belong in this race. In that sense, they are all the same.
Either they are horses who have run the distance and have never tried the dirt, or they are horses who have run on dirt but have never tried the distance.
So, we've got all these horses with the most basic questions marks you can think of when handicapping. Distance? Surface?
Pick your favorite candy bar in the world, the one you know and love the best. You know the taste. You know the smell. You know the texture. You know how exactly how it reacts in different climates. You've gotten to know each other so well that it recently invited you to join it's book club.
Now find your candy bar in this Breeder's Cup candy lineup.
You can't, it's a setup.
Even if you come back after the race is run and tell me that you did it, you found your Snickers bar in the candy lineup and it paid $18.00, I'll still tell you that you were wrong.
You didn't find your Snickers bar, not in this race. You simply picked the right Twix bar.
Breeder's Cup Marathon
Post time: 1:48pm Pacific Time Distance: 1 3/4 Miles (14F) Surface: Dirt
Almundena (Per) Sire- Silver Planet *Arg (Fitzcarraldo *Arg) Dam - Fire Legend *Arg (Engrillado *Arg)
This 5YO mare had a pretty successful 2011 campaign in Peru with four 1st place finishes and three 2nd place finishes. One of those wins came in Group II company while one of the place performances came against Group I company. On the downside, all of those race were on turf and the furthest of those races was 1 1/2 miles.
Almundena hasn't been nearly as consistent on dirt as she has on turf. In the past 2 years, she's only got one in the money performance on dirt; a 2nd place effort at 1 1/4 miles in Group I company in Argentina.
It's hard to gauge Almundena's form for the Marathon as she hasn't run since May 25 of this year.
My take: This is going to be a theme, there are just too many questions marks here to back this horse. Although she's apparently been full of run at the end of a few 1 1/2 mile races, that doesn't mean she'll like 1 3/4 miles. That, combined with the layoff and lack of dirt form make her a toss for me.
NOTE: I'll only be using this race in multi-race wagers, not a chance I try and tackle the exacta, trifecta, or superfecta.
Antigun: Sire - Istan (Gone West) Dam - Rimini Road (Dynaformer)
You might remember seeing this 3YO colt in a couple of Derby preps (G II Rebel, G I Arkansas), a Triple Crown race (G I Belmont), a couple big summer races for 3YO's (G II Jim Dandy, G I Travers), or taking on older horses in the Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup.
Wow! Classy horse, done deal, sign me up.
Not so fast. Antigun, while having been placed in top caliber races, is not a top caliber horse. His efforts in each of the races above left a lot to be desired. He finished 11th by 9+ in the Rebel, 5th by 11+ in the Arkansas, 6th by 7 in the Jim Dandy, 4th by 1+ in the Travers, and 4th by 7+ in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. His shining moment thus far came in the Belmont where he finished 3rd, 2 back from the winner, Union Rags.
Antigun definitely is in need of a little class relief and the Marathon will certainly provide that.
So then the question becomes, can he handle the surface and distance?
Dirt should not be a problem, that's the surface he's meant to run on. Distance, however, could be an issue.
Many will point to his solid effort in the Belmont and automatically assume that the more distance the better for Antigun. And yes, he does get some stamina from his damsire, Dynaformer. But, I'm far from convinced. Progeny of Atigun's sire, Gone West, typically don't like to go much more than a mile. Stretching out to take a stab in the Belmont is one thing, stretching out even further to try 1 3/4 miles is another.
My take: While this will be the easiest bunch he's run against in a while, I think the distance will be too much to overcome. Maybe he can grab a piece of the exotics, but he's not on my list of potential winners and will likely be over bet.
Balladry: Sire - Unbridled's Song (Unbridled) Dam - Storm Song (Summer Squall)
A 4YO colt who's best effort in 2012 came in a 50k Allowance race at 1 1/6 mile on the synthetic track at Hollywood.
Obviously there's a lot more I could say, but the above sentence really sums things up for me.
Balladry's not bred to go long, was backing up at the end of his two tries at longer distances (1 1/2 miles and 1 3/8 miles), and appears to prefer synthetics to dirt.
My take: I'm going to go ahead and let the Good News Korean Dance Corp give you my take on Balladry's chances in the Marathon, enjoy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RajXWNTULBA
If you don't click on the link, you're missing out. However, her are a few of the lyrics to the song that they dance to courtesy of Atomic Kitten:
So, Balladry, see ya
All right (oh, yeah)
I wouldn't wanna be ya tonight
Let me make it clear, all right
You're not the one for me, yeah
Yeah, yeah, yeah
Calidoscopio (Arg): Sire - Luhuk (Forty Niner) Dam - Calderona *Arg (Lefty)
This a straight up, 9YO horse. This stallion's been around the block. For some reason when I saw "B. h. 9" in the PP's, the first thing I thought of was this: http://www.hark.com/clips/dwxzwqnhfy-im-a-man-im-40
Look up Mike Gundy on youtube if you want to see the whole thing, it's about 3:30 minutes long.
If Calidoscopio could speak English:
"I'm Calidoscopio, I'm a man, I'm 9! I'm not a colt, I've got whole page of PP's all to myself, come after me!"
On to his chances in the Marathon. He's going to be a price, and I like him.
He's got 2 wins in 3 starts in 2012, the first by 3/4 of a length at 1 1/2 on dirt in Argentina, the second by 2 lengths at 1 9/16 miles in a Group 2 race on dirt in Argentina.
He'll be coming off of a 4 month layoff, which I don't love. But, the PP's are showing American works dating back to September which means he's getting ready for this.
My take: He's bred to go long, he's proven he can go long, and he's proven on the dirt. Yes, he's 9 and will be making his first start in America. Like I said, I'll only be betting this race as a part of multi-race wagers. But, if you wanted my top choice, this 9YO is it. He'll be on my ticket and I'm guessing we'll get at least 20-1 on him.
Commander: Sire - Broken Vow (Unbridled) Dam - Pout (Deputy Minister)
4YO colt enters the Marathon on a 6 race winning streak where his average margin of victory has been about 4 1/2 lengths.
My favorite baseball team, the Chicago Cubs played 162 games this year. Not once, did they manage to put together a 6 game winning streak. Commander has raced 9 times in 2012. It took Commander 9 races to do what the Cubs couldn't in 162 games. This is the life of a Cubs fan. I remain optimistic that Theo will turn it around though, celebration monster (see the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Preview) will make an appearance someday.
Commander will be the unquestioned speed in this race, he fires to the lead every time. The question will be, can he hang on for 1 3/4 mile? When stretched out to 1 3/8 mile last out he won a Grade III race, but his margin of victory (a head) paled in comparison to his dominating efforts at 1 mile and 1 1/16 miles. Was it the distance or the hike in class that made him work? Probably a combination of both.
My take: If you bet on Commander, you're pretty much guaranteed to have a exciting viewing experience. This horse is going to lead this group as far as he can, I just don't think he can quite lead them for the full 1 3/4 miles. The hard and fast track at Santa Anita should help his cause, but I'll be taking a somewhat reluctant stand against this horse.
Eldaafer: Sire - AP Indy (Seattle Slew) Dam - Habibti (Tabasco Cat)
This 7YO gelding just keeps chugging along, this will be his 4th consecutive Breeder's Cup Marathon. He won the Marathon at Churchill in 2010 and had forgettable performances in 2009 and 2011.
If history is any indication, Eldaafer's performance in the Marathon will be directly tied to his recent form. When he got blown away in the 2009 Marathon, he was coming off a 20 length loss in the Hawthorne Gold Cup. When he won in 2010, he was coming off a victory in the Grade III Turf Paradise Fall Challenge. When he lost last years 2011 Marathon by 17, he had finished 2nd in a 84k stakes race 2 months prior.
Eldaafer's last two races have been his best in awhile. He enters this Marathon off a 3rd place performance in the Grade III Hawthorne Gold Cup, a race that earned him a 99 Beyer.
My take: Even though he's got some wins at 1 1/2 miles and a win in the 2010 Marathon, I think 1 3/4 miles is too much for him. He's proven he can be there at the end, the surface won't be an issue, but I have to imagine there's someone in this full field that will reach the finish line first. There are 3 others that I like ahead of him, but Eldaafer will round out my top 4 and be on any Pick 3 ticket I play.
Fame and Glory: Montjeu *Ire (Sadler's Well) Dam - Gryada *GB (Shirely Heights *GB)
This 6YO stallion is bred like a champ. Montjeu proved himself to be a spectacular sire before his untimely passing this year and Sadler's Well is one of Europe's all time great sires, if not the best ever.
His pedigree points to stamina as a huge strength and it shows in his 14 wins out of 25 starts, some all the way up to 2 1/2 miles in distance. His best days may, however, may be behind him as he hasn't hit the board in any of his 3 attempts against Group company in 2012.
The biggest question with this classy stallion will be the switch from turf to dirt. There's really no way of knowing how Fame and Glory will react to the Santa Anita dirt course. However, he is in the hands of world class trainer, Aidan O'Brien.
My take: Fame and Glory will mostly likely go off at double digit odds to win this race. The combination of his stamina and the fact that Aidan O'Brien is his trainer makes me want to take a shot on this horse. But, I'm going to hold off. The only reason he's here is because he's off form in Europe and his connections think he can simply outclass this field. They may be right, but I'll be looking elsewhere.
Grassy: Sire - El Prado *IRE (Sadler's Well) Dam - High Savannah *GB (Rousillon)
Grassy is a 6YO stallion. Grassy has 19 career starts. All of Grassy's starts have been on the grass.
Do you ever get the feeling that a horse is going to beat you? You know, the feeling that a horses inclusion or exclusion from your bet is going to cost you one way or another? That's the feeling I get about Grassy.
It's something my friends and I call "horse intuition." Sometimes it's good horse intuition, sometimes it's bad horse intuition. I'll write about it in detail someday, but for now, all you need to know is that I'm getting some bad horse intuition from Grassy.
He's bred to go long and his pedigree says turf all the way. In fact, his pedigree suggests a good to yielding turf course would be ideal.
Grassy had some success in 2011, winning a few Graded races out at Belmont and Aqueduct. In 2012, Grassy has been lightly raced, only running twice thus far. He closed a bit in each effort, but lacked the form that brought him success in 2011.
My take: His name is Grassy and he's going to screw me, at least that's what my horse intuition is saying. Back to logical, fact based thought: I'm not using him on my tickets. He's off form, unproven on dirt, and if I'm not playing Fame and Glory, I'm not playing Grassy. Case closed.
Jaycito: Sire - Victory Gallop (Cryptoclearance) Dam - Night Edition (Ascot Knight)
Jaycito, now a 4YO colt, flashed some potential back in 2010 as a 2YO, winning the Grade I Norfolk at Hollywood Park. After that impressive performance, he was entered in the Grade I Breeder's Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs and went off as the 5-1 third choice. The problem was, Jaycito wanted no part of the terror train that was Uncle Mo as a 2YO. Jaycito finished 7th, 16 lengths back, and has been trying to find his way ever since.
He's run back and forth between dirt and synthetics, trying Graded company here and there. He's been steadily mediocre over this time and a big performance at a jump up in distance would be a big surprise.
My take: Remember when I said take notice if a horse is trained by Bob Baffert? You can go ahead and ignore that, just this once. Jaycito is not going to want any part of the Marathon distance, 1 1/8 miles is probably his limit if he's trying to run a competitive race. I'm hoping Jaycito's connections will cause him to take some money at the windows, I don't think he's got any chance. If Jaycito wins, this might truly be Beast Mode's (Baffert) Breeder's Cup. Or, perhaps I just old school Sprite commercialed this race:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ptyA9nyKes
Juniper Pass: Sire - Lemon Drop Kid (Kingmambo) Dam - Child Bride (Coronado's Quest)
This 5YO gelding has one win on the Santa Anita dirt to his name. It was his first dirt try and was back in March 2011, over a sloppy track, going 1 1/2 miles. After that, he ran in a string of turf races, before finally trying dirt again his last two out. In his first attempt back on dirt, he ran a well beaten 3rd going 1 1/8 miles on the Fairplex dirt course. His most recent attempt was also at 1 1/8 miles, this time at Fresno where he finished a narrow 2nd.
Juniper Pass has some decent performances from 1 1/2 miles to 1 3/4 miles. Is it enough to say he'll relish the BC Marathon distance? No, but it means he's got a better chance than some in here.
He hasn't appeared to thrive on fast dirt, but he also hasn't flopped on it.
My take: Twix bars and question marks abound. Like I said, I'd give him a better shot than about half of the horses in here. But, I'm not sure I consider him a win contender. Not on my tickets.
If you've gotten this far, you deserve a break from reading about the Breeder's Cup Marathon. Divert your attention accordingly, here's one option: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0
Did you see the horses in there? That's, loosely, a horse related music video.
Not Abroad: Sire - Not for Love (Mr. Prospector) Dam - Timely Broad (Broad Brush)
This 5YO stallion has been a model of consistency over the past 2 years. In 2012, he's hit the board in 4 out of 5 tries, including 2 wins, 2 places, and a show.
Form and surface are not question marks, stamina will determine this horses success. Not Abroad has showed success up to 1 1/2 miles, but we're talking about 2 more furlongs here. 2 furlongs might not seem like much, but it is. Uncle Mo at 1 mile to 1 1/6 miles: stud. Uncle Mo at 1 1/4 miles: ehhhhhhh.
My take: I'm doing it, I'm putting him on my tickets. His form is better than anyone's and that means a lot in this field. After I wrote that last sentence, I immediately thought about Eldaafer. Am I not giving him enough credit? Boy, this Marathon is what I like to call a poop shoot riot. Onward we go.
Rewind: I'm probably going to cause you to look it up by mentioning it, but I have to mention it in case you look it up on your own. By poop shoot riot, I do not mean the definition that pops up on urban dictionary. I don't mean anything by it, other than to describe a difficult to disastrous situation. That is all.
Quail Hill: Sire - Candy Ride *ARG (Ride the Rails) Dam - Midwife (Family Calling)
Quail Hill is on the also eligible list, if he ends up getting in I'll take a closer look at him. The fact that I can fly right over him actually makes him my favorite horse in this race. Go Quail Hill.
Romp (Arg): Sire - Incurable Optimist (Cure the Blues) Dam - Stormy Secret *Arg (Hidden Prize)
Right when you think this 8YO gelding's best days are behind him, he reels off a couple decent turf efforts ranging from 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/2 miles. Even so, his dirt form leaves a lot to be desired and he's been beaten on a few occasions by Junipers Pass, Worth Repeating, Eldaafer, and Balladry.
My take: No can do here. I was intrigued to see what he could do back in the 2010 Breeders Cup Marathon, unfortunately he clipped heels early and was a non factor. I think he's a little better on dirt than he seems, but he's still a play against.
Sense of Purpose: Sire - Galileo *Ire (Sadler's Well) Dam - Super Gift *Ire (Darshaan)
5YO mare is similar to Fame and Glory in the sense that she's bred well, likes to go long, is trying dirt for the first time, and appears to be off form.
Fame and Glory is a classier horse, so I'd be more inclined to look towards him if I'm banking on a European horse to run a winning race.
My take: Again, I'm just not seeing it. This mare has raced only 3 times this year with her worst performance coming last out in early September. If there was some form here, I'd be very interested. Sense of Purpose is bread to LOVE this distance, especially with the Darshaan influence on the bottom. But, alas, she will be off my tickets.
Worth Repeating: Sire - Giant's Causeway (Storm Cat) Dam - Lady Nichola (AP Indy)
I have to admit, as I started writing this preview, I was convinced I'd be taking a firm stand against Worth Repeating. After going through this entire list of entries, there is absolutely no way I can keep this horse off of my tickets.
This 6YO stallion is a real race horse. He's running in good races and he's running well. He still likes racing. He's fine with the turf, dirt, or synthetics. He's been good up to 1 1/2 miles. I don't like making him run the extra 2 furlongs, but sweet baby Jesus, at least it looks like he'll give it an honest effort.
As recently as June 2012, Worth Repeating has been holding his own against the likes of Richard's Kid, Rail Trip, Casino Host, and Dhaamer. Those horses are by no means world beaters, but they're also real life race horses.
My take: At first, I was wary that he backed up a bit towards the end of his 1 3/8m race and his 1 1/2m race (his July and August races). But then, I didn't care. I'm sticking with my 9YO Argentinian fire cracker as my top choice, but Worth Repeating is undoubtedly better than most here. He'll be on my tickets.
Summary:
I like them in this order, all 4 will be on my Pick 3 tickets. I'll pare down as needed on any other multi-race wagers.
Calidoscopio
Worth Repeating
Not Abroad
Eldaafer
I might never eat a Twix bar again.
Happy horzing.
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