I love the Triple Crown Trail, but the Breeder's Cup is my favorite horse racing event. With that said, Breeder's Cup pre-entries were announced today. Me gusta mucho.
While the field's and post positions won't be locked in until Monday 10/29/12, we now have a solid handle on where all of the contenders will be running.
Let the horzing begin!
Scratches can occur, some horses have been cross entered in other races, jockey assignments aren't all set, weird stuff can happen, post positions matter, I love enchiladas de mole, a possum and opossum are two different creatures. Knowing all that, let's remember that this is a fluid process, things can change.
I'm going to begin my horzing with the first scheduled BC race, the
Juvenile Sprint. The JV Sprint is scheduled to be run on Friday,
11/2/12 at 1:06 Pacific Time. Distance: 6F Surface: Dirt
Note: Horses will be listed in alphabetical orders. As previously mentioned, we won't know post positions until Monday 10/29/12.
The field:
Almost an Angel: Sire - Artie Schiller (El Prado) Dam - Earthly Angel (Crafty Prospector)
This filly will be trying dirt for the first time, having previously run on both turf and synthetics. At first glance, there's not a lot to love here. Almost an Angel broke her maiden back in June, going 6F on the Belmont Turf. She proceeded to try her hand against graded competition in the Grade II With Anticipation on turf at Saratogta and the Grade I Alcibiades on synthetics at Keenland. Both races were run at 1 mile and 1/16th. On a scale of Awful-Not Good, things went "Not Good." She finished 7th in the With Anticipation, 5 and 3/4 lengths back, and finished 6th in the Alcibiades, 6 and 1/2 lengths back.
Her pedigree suggests somewhere between 8F and 10F would be her ideal distance, so this seems like strange spot. On a positive note, Wesley Ward is solid with 2YO horses, maybe he can work some magic.
My take: Not today, not tomorrow, and not on Friday 11/2. This filly will not be a part of any ticket I play.
Note: Has the Juvenile Fillies listed as her second choice.
Beholder: Sire - Henny Hughes (Hennessy) Dam - Leslie's Lady (Tricky Creek)
Ricky Bobby fast. Faster than that Jimmy John's delivery guy fast. That's right Jimmy John's, Beholder is faster than freaky fast; she would deliver a sandwich faster than your best delivery person.
This filly broke her maiden in July at Del Mar going 5 1/2F on synthetics. She proceeded to take on Executiveprivilege, going 7F in the Grade I Debutante at Del Mar. After setting early fractions of 22 and 2, 45 and 1, and 1:10, she was nosed by Executiveprivilege at the wire.
She came back in a 6F, 50K Allowance race at Santa Anita in early October and blew the field away by 11. That frisky performance earned her a 108 Beyer and will undoubtedly make her the favorite in this race.
My take: Breeder's Cup day is full of surprises, but I don't think this will be one of them. Beholder will be a short price and should have her way up front. She should be a nice single to start off any multi-race wagers, especially with the unpredictable Marathon next on the card. If you can beat her though, you'll get paid. I might try with a horse further down this list, but Beholder should win.
Note: Has the Juvenile Fillies listed as her second choice.
Ceiling Kitty (GB): Sire - Red Clubs *Ire (Red Rocks) Dam - Baldovina *GB (Tale of the Cat)
Well, she's got the best name thus far as we work our way down in alphabetical order.
Scenario:
You're coming home from the store. You got a new, cute, little kitten just the other day. You fully expect it to be waiting for you at the front door, meowing softly and looking adorable. You reach the front door and are ready to shower your little kitten with love. You open the front door. Your kitten is on the ceiling. What the @#$#?!?!?! Your kitten is on the ceiling. It is above you. It is defying gravity. It is...CEILING KITTY.
That would be both absurd and awesome. I'm not sure how I would react. I look forward to the day when I can find out.
Horses. Breeder's Cup. Refocus.
Ceiling Kitty, the horse version. This half sister to Juvenile Fillies Turf prospect, Sky Lantern, broke her maiden in May, going 5F on the synthetic surface at Kempton in 1:00 and change. She went on to surprise at 20-1 in her next two tries at 5F on turf. She won a Listed race at York (May) by 2 lengths, narrowly missing the course record. She then went on to win a Group II race at Ascot (June) by 1 length. Since then, she been seen finishing 4th in a Group II race at Doncaster and 7th in a Group I race at Newmarket.
She'll be trying dirt for the first time and any Breeder's Cup race is a tough spot for that kind of move. Her connections may just be taking a shot in the dark, but perhaps they see something here. Her sire, Red Clubs, was a successful sprinter. Although, her pedigree suggests she could stretch out a bit. Either way, everything points towards turf as her preferred surface.
Interestingly, she has more wins (3) than any other horse in this field (assuming Kauai Kate races in the Juvenile Fillies).
My take: I'll be keeping an eye out for any news on this filly as we approach the Breeder's Cup. She's got a tall task ahead and may be over matched. If I hear or see anything positive about Ceiling Kitty, there's a chance I would include her at the bottom of my exotics in the hopes of spicing things up with a big price.
Hazardous: Sire - Candy Ride *ARG (Ride the Rails) Dam - Malley Girl (Malek *Chi)
This 2YO gelding broke his maiden by 5 lengths, going 5F in a 12.5 Maiden Claimer on the synthetic surface at Golden Gate. He was then claimed in a 16K Claiming race at Golden Gate where he finished 4th after losing interest early on.
Hazardous won his first start off the claim in a 22.5 Claimer going 6F on the dirt at Santa Anita (October 14th). He won without doubt, finishing 13+ lengths ahead of his nearest competitor.
My take: Hazardous showed some talent and a liking for the Santa Anita dirt track
winning last out, I guess that was enough for the connections to pony
up the BC entry fee. While this horse has been making steady progress up the claiming ladder, I simply cannot support a jump from a 22.5 Claimer to a Breeder's Cup race. Not on my tickets.
Hightail: Sire - Mineshaft (AP Indy) Dam - Stormy Renee (Storm Cat)
Hightail is a 2YO colt that is 0 for his life. Not that this needs any more explanation, but for further perspective, consider the following: Alex Rodriguez batted .120 this postseason, he was 3 for 25. Horrendous, right? He practically got booed out of New York. Hightail's batting average is .000.
Now that I've given this colt the ARod treatment, let me say that he hasn't run horribly in his 8 attempts. He's been aggressively placed in one Grade III, two Grade II's, and one Grade I. He's also come close to winning a few Maiden Special Weights finishing 2nd by a head, 3rd by 4+ lenghts, and 3rd by 1+ lengths. His 6th place effort last out in the Grade I Breeders Futurity at Keenland was admirable.
I'm not sure what D. Wayne Lukas is doing with Hightail. I'm not sure what D. Wayne Lukas is doing in general these days as the placement of his horses is often confounding. Hightail might be a decent horse, but he's been over his head time and time again. Sounds like the perfect time to go from routing to sprinting and enter him in a Breeder's Cup Race. That last sentence was a lie, I'm sorry I lied to you.
My take: The following makes more sense than Hightail in the BC and is also hilarious:
Lloyd:
That's a lovely accent you have. New Jersey?
Lady at bus stop:
Austria.
Lloyd:
Austria! Well, then. G'day mate! Let's put another shrimp on the barbie!
Lady at bus stop:
Let's not.
Dumb and Dumber never fails to make me laugh. There always a scenario where a horse can pick up the pieces for 3rd, maybe Hightail can do that. He'll be off my tickets though as I think we're more likely to see Hightail giving his number to a filly in the stands around post time than hitting the board.
Kauai Kate: Sire - Malibu Moon (AP Indy) Dam - More Than Pretty (More Than Ready)
I'm putting her on the list, but am not going to write much about her. She's cross entered in the Juvenile Fillies and has that race as her first choice. If, for some reason, she ends up here, I'll revisit this post.
Quick note: I really laid into Hightail back there, sorry Hightail. I still don't think he'll hit the board, but the connections of Hazardous might be more deserving of the Dumb and Dumber scolding. There's nothing I can do about the ARod comparison though, the horse is actually batting .000. I think there's something about D. Wayne Lukas that loads my burrito with habanero sauce from hell. Perhaps it's his hat. I like funny and unnecessary hats though, so that can't be it...
Merit Man: Sire - With Distinction (Storm Cat) Dam - Precise Strike (Precise End)
As I followed the news regarding potential starters for this race, I had a vision. It was perfect. Dreamy. Perhaps divine. It was a cold beer after a tough day at work. It was the relief of a rest stop after downing a big gulp during a long road trip. It was the celebration that ensued after the Cubs won the World Series.
Actually, it wasn't the celebration post Cubs World Series. That's going to be a blur. I will transform from human to celebration monster when that happens. You only want to be with celebration monster if you're also a celebration monster. Humans will look poorly upon the celebration monster. Celebration monster will not care, the Cubs will have just won the World Series.
So, it was the relief of a rest stop after downing a big gulp during a long road trip...
It was Beholder and Kauai Kate blazing and battling on the front end of the Juvenile Sprint. Two fast fillies, out to prove which was fastest. However, occupied by their battle for speed supremacy, they went too fast.
As they made the turn for home, there was a horse named Merit Man sitting a couple lengths back. Merit Man didn't care about wiring the field. The only thing Merit Man cared about was winning. He had done it twice already; once going 5 1/2 furlongs on synthetics at Del Mar and once going 6F on the dirt at Santa Anita. He won the first by 3/4 and the second by 5 1/2 lengths. His performance at Santa Anita was impressive enough to earn him a 92 Beyer.
As Beholder and Kauai Kate tired, Merit Man pounced. He won the Juvenile Sprint by 2 lengths and proved himself a 2YO to be reckoned with.
Now, if only this dream could become a reality...
My take: Kauai Kate probably won't be in this race. Beholder will fly alone on the front end and Merit Man won't be able to run her down. I still like Merit Man enough to use him in any multi-race wagers though. Maybe I'll try and beat Beholder in some exotics with Merit Man on top as well, we'll see...
South Floyd: Sire - Any Given Saturday (Distorted Humor) Dam - Major Wager (Valid Wager)
2YO colt broke his maiden in late September on the Fairplex dirt course, going 6F on the front end and winning by 4. He next raced on October 6th at Santa Anita in the 100k Tim Conway Stakes on dirt and came in second, 5+ lengths behind the winner, Merit Man.
My take: South Floyd appears to be a decent colt who can flash some speed and win in the right spot. However, I don't think this is the right spot. He might take some money because of the Doug O'Neil - I'll Have Another effect, but I'm not too interested. The bottom line is he's slower than Beholder and already has proven to be 5 lengths short of Merit Man. He won't be on my muti-race wagers and will, at best, be filling out my 3rd spot with a few others in a trifecta.
Super Ninety Nine: Sire - Pulpit (AP Indy) Dam - Exogenetic (Unbridled's Song)
This 2YO colt was a nice winner in his only start thus far. He won a Maiden Special Weight going 7F on the Santa Anita dirt by sitting just off the leader before pulling away at the turn to win by 1 1/4 lengths. Scaling back to 6F for the Juvenile Sprint shouldn't be an issue
Bob Baffert.
Whenever you see that name this Breeder's Cup weekend, take notice.
If you're an NFL fan, you might remember the following highlight:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBHk9rc4hHc&noredirect=1
For all intensive purposes, that was the day Beast Mode was born.
When it comes to Santa Anita, Bob Baffert is Beast Mode.
Beast Mode trains Super Ninety Nine, that's enough for me to be wary.
My take: I think he's a notch below Beholder and Merit Man, but I'll likely include him in any multi-race wagers as he's better than the rest and trained by Beast Mode. If I can afford it, I'll add a Baffert horse to a ticket whenever and wherever possible. "If I can afford it," is the key part of that last sentence.
Sweet Shirley Mae: Sire - Broken Vow (Unbridled) Dam - Joyful Chaos (Rahy)
2YO broke her maiden at 5F on a sloppy Belmont track back in May. She's tried 2 races since: the Grade III Schuylerville Stakes at 6F on the Saratoga dirt and the Grade I Spinaway at 7F, also on the Saratoga dirt.
In the Schuylerville, she stalked the pace only to fade to 5th, 8 lengths from the winner.
She put in a much better effort in the Spinaway, closing from 9 back to finish 2nd, 2+ lengths away from the winner.
Sweet Shirley Mae hasn't had any "wow" moments at this point in her career. She did beat the talented Bern Identity while breaking her maiden. However, as previously mentioned, that was over a sloppy track and has to be discounted to an extent.
She has been working well, most recently firing a 5F bullet (1:00 and 4) on October 21st at Churchill.
My take: I think she's got the best shot of the two Wesley Ward trainees (Almost an Angel is the other), but ultimately is in too deep. She a contender to fill out the trifecta, a shot at routing might best suit her future interests.
And that rounds out the field for the Juvenile Sprint.
I'm dreading the Marathon, it's packed and impossible. I'm going to give it a go though and will hopefully have that preview up sometime tomorrow.
Happy horzing.
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