Breeder's Cup Ladies Classic Preview

I think the following is a perfect way to start of this preview of the Ladies Classic:


[From the movie, "Anchorman"]

Brian Fantana: [about Veronica] I'll give this little cookie an hour before we're doing the no-pants dance. Time to musk up.
[opens cologne cabinet]
Ron Burgundy: Wow. Never ceases to amaze me. What cologne you gonna go with? London Gentleman, or wait. No, no, no. Hold on. Blackbeard's Delight.
Brian Fantana: No, she gets a special cologne... It's called Sex Panther by Odeon. It's illegal in nine countries... Yep, it's made with bits of real panther, so you know it's good.
Ron Burgundy: It's quite pungent.
Brian Fantana: Oh yeah.
Ron Burgundy: It's a formidable scent... It stings the nostrils. In a good way.
Brian Fantana: Yep.
Ron Burgundy: Brian, I'm gonna be honest with you, that smells like pure gasoline.
Brian Fantana: They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time, it works every time.
[cheesy grin]
Ron Burgundy: That doesn't make sense.
Brian Fantana: Well... Let's go see if we can make this little kitty purr.
[snarls]

For further viewing pleasure, a link to the video clip: 60% of the time, it works every time

That link doesn't provide the best picture quality, but it's the only one I could find that highlights the specific exchange above.

You may be thinking I started off with this because it's the Ladies Classic and this scene is all about trying to get a lady.

You would be 90% wrong.  10% right, simply because it has to cross your mind.  It makes sense.  10% sense, anyway.

The real reason this clip makes me think of the Ladies Classic:

"60% of the time, it works every time."

Or, in this case: 60% of the time these fillies win EVERY TIME.

That stat is actually 100% accurate.  Below is each fillies lifetime record, at the bottom is their combined lifetime record.

Awesome Feather: 10/10
Class Included:      10/16
Grace Hall:             6/10
In Lingerie:              4/7
Include Me Out:     6/12
Love and Pride:      7/16
My Miss Aurelia:     6/6
Questing:                4/10
Royal Delta:           8/14

Combined record: 61/101 = .6039 = 60%

I could be wrong, but I think you'd be hard pressed to find another race of this significance with that kind of statistic.  It's unbelievable.  This is a special race.

Breeder's Cup Ladies Classic

Distance: 1 1/8 miles   Surface: Dirt

Awesome Feather: Sire - Awesome of Course (Awesome Again)  Dam - Precious Feather (Gone West)

A perfect 10 for 10 in her career, this filly is very lightly raced in 2012.  She recorded an easy victory back in January, only to take an 8 month break from racing.  She returned in late September to run in a 1 mile stakes race at Belmont that was to be used specifically as a prep for the Ladies Classic.

Despite the layoff, Awesome Feather appeared to be in top form as she romped by 11+ lengths and earned a career high 108 Beyer.

How many concerns can you have about a filly who's never lost?

It may be nitpicking, but there are a few.  First, you have to wonder if she ran a little too big in her return to the races.  Traditionally, horses coming into the Breeders Cup off a career Beyer tend to regress a bit.  So, it's fair to wonder if she'll have enough left for this highly competitive race.

Second, while her 10 wins have been dominant, they haven't been against the best of competition.  Of her 10 wins, only 2 are graded stakes victories.  Her first came in the Grade I Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies in 2010, while her second came in the Grade I Gazelle in 2011.

My take: I think she's ready to win this race.  Her race off the layoff was big, but it was easy.  This filly has only gotten better with age and she'll finally have a chance to show it after injury concerns have keep her lightly raced.  She's immensely talented, wins for fun, and looks ready to roll.  She's my pick.

Class Included: Sire - Include (Broad Brush)  Dam - A Classic Life (Sky Classic)

This 4YO filly enters the Ladies Classic on a 4 race winning streak.  Additionally, she's 5 for 6 at the 1 1/8 miles distance with her only loss being a 2nd place finish in the 2011 version of the Ballerina Stakes at Hastings (she won this year's Grade III Ballerina).

With all of her races being at Emerald Downs and Hastings, you have to question the competition she's been facing.  Her win in the 2012 Ballerina is her only graded stakes win to date.

My take: To win in this spot would be a tall task.  She'll need the absolute perfect setup combined with the race of her life.  With that said, I think she's got a shot at surprising many with an in the money performance.  She truly appreciates the distance, which is more than I can say for many of these talented fillies.  Not in my multi-race wagers, definitely a part of my trifecta ticket.

Grace Hall: Sire - Empire Maker (Unbridled)  Dam - Season's Greetings *IRE (Ezzoud *IRE)

This 3YO filly has run a few races that might be good enough to win here.  However, up to this point in her career, she's been unable to find any sort of consistency.

You never know when she's going to run big (Grade II Delaware Oaks, Grade II Indiana Oaks) or when she's going to appear uninterested (Grade I Kentucky Oaks, Grade I Alabama).

Unfortunately, her workouts don't provide much of a clue as to how she's coming into this race.  They've looked nice and the times have been right, but she's worked well before big and poor performances.

My take: Too inconsistent for my taste and I think she prefers less that 1 1/8 miles.  She's also finished behind In Lingerie, My Miss Aurelia, and Questing in previous races.  In the money contender, although I'll be taking a stand against in all bets.

In Lingerie: Sire - Empire Maker (Unbridled)  Dam - Cat Chat (Storm Cat)

Solid 3YO filly has 3 graded stakes victories in 2012.  The first came at 1 mile over the synthetic track at Turf Paradise in the Grade III Burbonette Oaks, she won going away by 6.  The second came as part of the Preakness under card in the Grade II Black Eyed Susan.  That race was contested at 1 1/8 miles on the Pimlico dirt, In Lingerie closed to win by 1 1/4 lengths.  Her third graded stakes win came last out in the Grade I Spinster at 1 1/8 miles over the Keenland synthetic track, she won by 2.

With 2 graded stakes wins at 1 1/8 miles, we can assume that the distance of the Ladies Classic will be to this fillies liking.  However, the best of those 3 efforts both came over synthetic tracks, a surface which she appears to favor slightly over dirt.

My take: She's outclassed and there are other fillies who will take to the Santa Anita dirt better than she will.  I'm comfortable tossing her from contention, I'd be surprised with an in the money finish.

Include Me Out: Sire - Include (Broad Brush)  Dam - Don't Trick Her (Mazel Trick)

Horse for the course?

This 4YO filly has 3 wins, 1 place, and 1 show in 6 tries over the Santa Anita dirt track.  You can eliminate any questions regarding how she'll like the hard going on race day.

To me, despite her win in the Grade II La Canada at 1 1/8 miles in the slop at Santa Anita, I don't think she's a true 9F filly.  When facing lesser, can she win at 9 furlongs? As she's proven, the answer is yes.

But this is not an ordinary group of fillies.  As a whole, it's probably the best field we've ever seen in the Ladies Classic.  She will not face a better group than this. 

My take: Her figures put her a notch below the top, but she's consistent and likes Santa Anita.  When it comes down to it, I don't think she can win this race.  There's just too much star power, and none of the top contenders should be forced to run too far out of their comfort zone.  She can grab a piece, but will not be on my multi-race tickets.

Love and Pride: Sire - AP Indy (Seattle Slew)  Dam - Ile de France (Storm Cat)

1 1/8 miles looks like her max, but she's proven she can handle it.  Back in June she won the Grade III Obeah at Delaware going 1 1/8 miles earning a 95 Beyer in the process.  After wilting on the front end of a 1 1/4 miles Grade II race in July, she came back to score in Grade I Personal Ensign going 1 1/8 miles on the Saratoga main track.

Her last out at Santa Anita, going 1 1/6 miles, earned her a career best 102 Beyer as she won the Grade I Zenyatta by 3 lengths after setting the pace early.  It should be noted, however, that she had the lead all to herself and set moderate fractions.  Some even insist there was a major rail bias that day.    

My take: You have to like her chances more after her win on the Santa Anita track.  However, her best race is one when she's got the lead all to herself and that's not going to happen here.  The most likely scenario has her sitting just off the pace that's set by the quick filly, Questing.  If that's the case, she'll be running in a group that likely includes My Miss Aurelia, Awesome Feather, Grace Hall, and perhaps Royal Delta.  Should she challenge Questing on the lead, a duel would most likely do them both in.  She's a notch below in terms of talent and the pace scenario makes it look impossible for her here.  A toss for me.

My Miss Aurelia: Sire - Smart Strike (Mr. Prospector)  Dam - My Miss Storm Cat (Sea of Secrets)

Just like Awesome Feather, My Miss Aurelia enters the Ladies Classic with an undefeated record.  4 of her 6 victories are graded stakes races victories.  Some of her highlights include a 5 1/2 length romp in last years Grade I Frizette, a 3 length victory in last years Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies, and a narrow win last out against Questing in the Grade I Cotillion.

This 3YO filly is consistent, tested, and gives it her all every time out.  Based on Beyer's, however, she would appear to be a cut below the likes of Royal Delta, Awesome Feather, and even Questing at her best.

This will also be her first try at 1 1/8 miles, although her pedigree suggests it should be within her scope.

My take: She has been receiving rave reviews from anyone and everyone that's seen her work leading up to this.  Most think she's primed and ready to give her best effort, the only question is, is that enough?  As far as I'm concerned, you cannot discount this filly.  She grinds and grinds and grinds until, eventually, she reached the finish line first.  I don't know if her best can beat a great race from Royal Delta or Awesome Feather, but I'm excited to find out.  I'm also not going to be left in the cold if her best is good enough, this undefeated filly is a win contender and my tickets will reflect just that.

Questing (GB): Sire - Hard Spun (Danzig)  Dam - Chercheuse (Seeking the Gold)

3YO filly had little to no success in Europe, in last year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies, or on turf here in America.  Trying dirt for the second time in America, she burst on to the scene with a convincing victory in an Allowance Optional Claimer in June over a fast track at Belmont.  While the race itself lacked talent, the Beyer of 105 that she received spoke volumes.  

From there, she went on to a 4+ length victory in the Grade I CCA Oaks going 1 1/8 miles on the Saratoga dirt.  In that race, she beat the likes of Zo Impressive and fellow Ladies Classic starter, In Lingerie.

In August, she took on more Grade I competition in the Alabama going 1 1/4 miles, again on the Saratoga dirt.  Questing obliterated the field by 11, leading the whole way on the front end.  Her final time of 2:01 and 1/5 translated to another impressive figure, this time 106.

Her 3 race streak of domination finally came to an end when she ran into My Miss Aurelia in the Grade I Cotillion.  After having her way up front through most of the 1 1/16 mile race and setting moderate fractions of 25, 50, and 1:14, Questing lost the stretch battle.

Bottom line: This filly is talented and fast.

My take: With the plethora of talent and ability in this race, I can't see Questing winning this on the front.  A repeat of her Alabama might make me eat my words, but that's the kind of race she'll need here.  Regardless of what I think, she going to go to the front and try and stay there until the end.  Like I said, I think she gets caught, but she'll sure be fun to watch.  If I can afford to have her on multi-race tickets, I'll do it, but I'm comfortable if I can't.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see her off the board at the end.


This is going to be one heck of a race, hope everyone has a great time viewing it.

Feel free to comment on your thoughts or with your picks!!!

Happy horzing everyone, Breeder's Cup draw is tomorrow!!!!!!!!!!!!