Breeder's Cup races are tough to handicap. Breeder's Cup Turf races, in particular, I think are the toughest. And then there are Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf races, which have just depantsed me over the years. I'm going to do my best to keep my pants on this year, giddyup.
Quick story before we get our preview on:
In 2008, a buddy and I decided we were going to attend the Breeder's Cup every year. We were pretty new to horzing at that point. Our viewership and attention to the sport had increased pretty quickly since our first two years in college (2003 and 2004). This decision basically marked our commitment to horse racing.
So, still pretty green to the horzing game, we were off to the Breeder's Cup.
The Juvenile Fillies Turf was the second BC race on the Friday card. We had just witnessed Ventura and Indian Blessing run 1-2 in the Filly & Mare Sprint. If I recall, I put in a $2 WPS on Indian Blessing. Let me tell you, I was in it to win it. Indian Blessing paid $3.40 to place and $2.40 to show. I lost .20 cents that race. Looking back on things, I truly had no idea what I was doing, but it was still awesome.
The Juvenile Fillies Turf had about 5 minutes to post, I was back at my seat, my wager was placed, I was primed and ready.
Back comes my buddy, with an obvious look of terror on his face. He says to me, "I just made an aggressive maneuver."
Let me preface things by saying we were 1 year out of college, had debts, and a very limited budget for wagering.
I asked my buddy what that could possibly mean, he says, "I just put in a $50 win bet."
Yeah, that was quite frisky for where each of us were at financially. I figured he put it on the 5-2 favorite, Laragh, in the hopes of doubling up.
Me: You put it on the 2?
Him: No, the 3.
Me: The 3? [I look up at the board]
Me: The 3 is 11-1?!?!?!?!
Him: I told you it was an aggressive maneuver.
Post time comes, the gates open, off they go.
Laragh takes control up front and not a single horse goes up to challenge her. As they make the turn, Laragh is still in control and has the look of a horse that has something left, she's primed. All of a sudden, a horse named Maram starts making steady progress up the middle of the track. Yes, Maram is the 3 horse. It doesn't look like she's going to catch Laragh, but she's coming.
They keep chugging towards the finish, Laragh is starting to run out of gas. Maram is still making progress. Holy shit. Maram passes Laragh, but a horse named Heart Shaped in flying late on the outside. Heart Shaped and Maram hit the wire together, photo finish.
After a tense few minutes, it's announced that Maram won by a nose. She paid $24.20, my friend had just won $605.
Having been only a year removed from college, we both still had a bit of that college party mentality. You know what I mean. Let me tell you, we drank $8 beers like they $2 cans of Keystone tall boys and had our selves an afternoon.
A healthy (or unhealthy, depending how you look at it) amount of beers in, I tried to beat Zenyatta in the Ladies Classic.
Hahahahahaha, yeah right.
The Breeder's Cup is awesome.
The Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Distance: 1 mile Surface: Turf (duh)
Flashy Ways: Sire - Catienus (Storm Cat) Dam - Golden Kitty (Carson City)
Someone I follow on twitter posted this the other day, I'm putting it here because it's awesome:
So you think the owners of Flashy Ways are big fans of Biggie? #Hypnotize
I don't know if she'd want her handle posted, so I won't. But, awesome thought. If you want to listen, click on "Hypnotize" above. That's gangsta rap at it's best, rappers today suck.
What if Tupac and Biggie are alive? What if Biggie secretly owns this horse? What if Tupac's got a horse in the Breeder's Cup as well? Perhaps they've taken their feud to the track. Maybe...just maybe...
This filly is the only one in this race to have won at a mile on the Santa Anita turf course. It was an impressive performance, so impressive that her connections ponied up the entry fee to get her in this race.
My take: The above is good enough for me. We know she'll handle the course and distance, which is more than we can say for any other filly in this field. Better yet, she'll likely be somewhere around 10-1. Yes please, I'll have that. Win contender, on my tickets.
Flotilla (Fr): Sire - Mizzen Mast (Cozzene) Dam - Louvain *IRE (Sindaar *IRE)
Lacked room to run in her Group I attempt last out, finished 1+ length back in 4th.
Her name makes me think of a floating tortilla.
The firm turf, especially at Santa Anita, figures to be a big question mark here. Flotilla has also yet to win going a mile or against Group company.
My take: In such a wide open field, there are others I like more. Just like the Marathon, I doubt I'll be playing any exacta's, trifecta's, or superfecta's here, I'm only looking for winners; The floating tortilla is not on my list.
Infanta Branca: Sire - Henrythenavigator (King Mambo) Dam - Totemic (Vanlandingham)
On the also eligible list, this filly will need some defections to make the field.
Kitten's Point: Sire - Kitten's Joy (El Prado *IRE) Dam - Rendezvous Point (Kingmambo)
Half sister to last years winner of this race, Stephanie's Kitten, Kitten's Point has had a nice start to her career. She broke her maiden first time out, winning a 6F race on Presque Isle's synthetic track. She followed up that effort with a solid 2nd place finish in the Grade III Jessamine at Keenland.
She's a dead closer and will undoubtedly be coming late. However, big closing moves in 1 mile turf races at Santa Anita typically don't yield the best results. Additionally, her figures in both races have come up a bit low.
My take: There's a lot to like here and I think Kitten's Point could be a filly to watch down the road. I don't like her in this spot though and will be looking elsewhere.
Manuka Honey: Sire - Borrego (El Prado *IRE) Dam - Al Max Dinner (End Sweep)
On the also eligible list, this filly will need some defections to make the field.
Moonwalk: Sire - Malibu Moon (AP Indy) Dam - Lucinda K (Red Ransom)
Pulled a stunner at 36-1 last out in the 1 1/16 mile Grade III Jessamine on the Keenland turf. That performance earned Moonwalk a free entry here, she probably wouldn't be here otherwise.
My take: A graded stakes win going 1 1/16 mile says something, but this field is much tougher than the one she faced in the Jessamine. A win would be a shock, an out of the money performance seems more likely.
Moulin de Mougin: Sire - Curlin (Smart Strike) Dam - Cambiocorsa (Avenue of Flags)
Curlin alert. I love watching the progeny of great horses I've seen in person and Curlin is among the best. However, this filly is on the also eligible list, so we'll have to wait and see.
Nancy O (Ire): Sire - Pivotal *GB (Polar Falcon) Dam - Arravale (Arch)
Nancy O had absolutely no where to go in the stretch run of the Grade II Natalma at Woodbine. She swerved out only to get blocked, went back inside only to get blocked, appeared to be clear, only to get blocked again. When she finally got to run straight ahead, she showed that she had a lot of run left and finished 3rd, 2 lengths behind the winner, Spring Venture.
I'm not sure she gets to Spring Venture even with a clear trip, but it would've been close.
Nancy O tried dirt for the first time in her last start, the Grade I Frizette at Belmont. Things went poorly and she was eventually eased up.
My take: This filly's going to be overlooked and could go off as one of the longest shots on the board. She's 0 for 4 thus far in her career and hasn't had any spectacular moments to suggest a big performance is coming. However, I think there's some talent here. I love the breeding and suggest you keep this filly in mind when filling out the bottom of your tri's and supers.
Oscar Party: Sire - Dixie Union (Dixieland Band) Dam - Dream Lady (Old Trieste)
After reading this filly's name, the first thing that probably comes to mind is some sort of party where everyone's watching the Oscars. However, Oscar the Grouch was the first thing that came to my mind. I don't know why, but that's what happened. I simply envisioned some sort of party that was being thrown by Oscar.
So, I did a little research. Guess what? It's happened and there's video to prove it. Check out the highlights from Oscar the Grouch's birthday celebration: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5sk9KYxC_M
Oscar Party the horse broke her maiden in September, going 7F on the firm turf course at Kentucky Downs. As part of that race, she beat the previously discussed Moonwalk. Her last effort in the Grade III Jessamine was decent, she finished 4th less than a length behind the winner, Moonwalk.
My take: With all that said, I don't like Oscar Party's chances here. To me, she's part of group of 5 or so American runners that I think have a shot to round out a trifecta or superfecta. I don't consider her a win contender.
Renee's Queen: Sire - After Market (Storm Cat) Dam - Mighty Renee (Maria's Mon)
Has her first preference as the Juvenile Fillies and will likely run there.
Sky Lantern: Sire - Red Clubs *Ire (Red Ransom) Dam - Shawanni *GB (Shareef Dancer)
Your likely favorite and for good reason. This filly hit the ground running, scoring in her first attempt going 6F at Goodwood (GB). She's run solid since and boasts a lifetime record of 3 wins and 2 places in 5 tries. Her 2 place efforts came against Group III company while one of her wins (her last start) was a Group I victory.
She's only run up to 7F thus far, but the extra furlong should not be an issue. The connections also seem to think that she'll enjoy the firm going at Santa Anita.
So, what's not to like?
Here's the question mark: Can't turn left?
Perhaps Sky Lantern's not an ambiturner? Derek Zoolander was the male models of male models, but he had one debilitating secret: he couldn't turn left.
Sky Lantern might have no issue turning left, but this will be her first time trying. All we can do is take a wait and see approach, but it's something to consider.
My take: Turning left, the Santa Anita course, 1 mile, and Sky Lantern's ability to perform off such a lengthy trip are all things to be wary off. This filly does appear to be the class of the field and might be as talented as she appears. She'll be in my multi-race wagers for sure, but I'd be hesitant to take anything under 4-1 when placing win bets.
****The Lasix Issue****
I haven't touched on it yet, but it absolutely deserves to be mentioned: there is no Lasix for 2 year olds at this years Breeder's Cup. As the Europeans have been running without it, we can assume their recent form will be an honest indication of where they are at on race day. For the American runners, it's a complete unknown. Personally, I don't see how you can incorporate this Lasix ban into your handicapping. It's true that you can't completely trust how an American horse will run without the drug. But, you can't predict with any level of confidence that Friday or Saturday will be the day a horse bleeds.
Know that the ban is in place, know that it adds risk to any wagers you make on Juvenile races, but don't let it change the way you handicap. Bet on the races and inherit the risk or don't bet, that's my 2 cents.
Spring Venture: Sire - Spring at Last (Silver Deputy) Dam - Zahwah (Rahay)
She's been nothing but impressive, winning all three of her career starts. 2 of those starts have been on the Woodbine turf, while the other was on the Woodbine synthetic track. The last two wins have been in graded stakes, the first being the Grade II Natalma (turf), and the second being the Grade Mazarine (synthetics).
She's also worked her way up in distance, starting a 7F, moving to 1 mile, and then on to 1 1/6 miles.
Her win in the Natalma was flattered by the second place finisher's (Spring in the Air) win in her next try, the Grade I Alcibiades.
There's not a lot to dislike here, especially among a group of lightly raced 2YO's.
You can question her competition up to this point, but graded wins are graded wins and she's got two of them.
The only thing that makes me pause are her Beyer's: 69 on firm course in her first try, 83 on a yielding course her second time out, and 73 last out on a synthetic track. The 83 puts her a cut above most here, but the other two figures fit right in with the middle of the pack.
My take: For all the praise I gave her, I'll be trying to beat her on Friday. The course at Santa Anita is going to be firm and for me, there's a question as to whether or not that's how she likes it. She'll vie for favoritism, so beating her will certainly provide value. If you play against her as well, just remember, she's 3 for 3 and you can only be mad at yourself if she goes 4 for 4.
Summer of Fun: Sire - Include (Broad Brush) Dam - Royal Innocence (Royal Anthem)
This filly broke her maiden back in August, winning at 1 1/6 miles on the firm Saratoga turf. Since then, she's recorded a 10th place finish in the Grade II Natalma and a 3rd place finish in the Grade III Jessamine.
My take: Having already been beaten by horses I won't be using (Spring Venture, Moonwalk, Kitten's Point) I can't possibly support this filly here. It will take a big step up for her to finish in the money.
Sustained: Sire - War Front (Danzig) Dam - Sweetstorm Amy (Lemon Drop Kid)
She's a nice filly who appears to be on the up and up. After breaking her maiden at Saratoga going 1 /16 miles on the turf, she tried the Grade III Miss Grillo. There, she put in a solid effort, finishing 2nd, 2+ lengths behind the winner, Watsdachances.
My take: There's room for improvement here, I just don't think it's going to come all at once and in this race. She can certainly put in a big effort, I wouldn't put an in the money performance past her. I do not, however, consider her a win contender.
Tara From the Cape: Sire - Leroidesanimaux *BRZ (Candy Stripes) Dam - Royal Irish Lass (Saint Ballado)
She just took up 2 lines with her name and pedigree info, she's the first one to do that. Sign?
I don't think so, although I like her and think she may have a solid future.
She broke her maiden on the turf at Delaware going 7 1/2F, proceeded to finish 3rd to Watsdachances in a stakes race on turf, and then finished a fading 4th in the Grade I Alcibiades.
My take: I'd imagine Todd Pletcher will make some noise at some point during the Breeder's Cup, but I don't think it will be here. I put this filly among the bunch that could hit the board at a price, I don't think she can win.
The Gold Cheongasm (Ire): Sire - Red Clubs *IRE (Red Ransom) Dam - Fuerta Ventura *IRE (Desert Sun *GB)
Another 2 liner, actually makes me feel a little better.
This filly rattled off three straight wins from July to September before stepping up in competition her last two out. In late September, she was given a big shot in a Group I race at Newmarket with Frankie Dettori aboard only to 11th. She came back in the Tattersalls Millons 2YO Fillies Trophy at 7F and went off as the favorite, only to finish a closing 3rd.
My take: She's a European, so she's got that going for her. Up to this point, she hasn't lived up to her potential and doesn't have the track record of success that a filly like Sky Lantern has. I can't say I'd be shocked by any European winning here, but she's on the outside looking in.
Waterway Run: Sire - Arch (Kris S.) Dam - Princess Consort (Dixieland Band)
Pennsylvania bred as spent her entire career in England up to this point. She comes here off of back to back wins, the latter being against Group III company at Newmarket.
She's looked good in her two victories and will have all of the same questions as the other European shippers. Something that does intrigue me is her ability to flash a little speed. While a front running style doesn't usually win this race, the lead looks like it will be there for the taking. Waterway Run isn't a front runner, per se, but it was a style she used successfully to break her maiden.
My take: I like this filly and think she could go a bit overlooked on Friday. I'll be interested to see where she draws on Monday, but in a race that lacks pace, she could be the one who tries to steal it on the front. I consider her a win contender and will use her in my multi-race wagers.
Watsdachances (Ire): Sire - Diamond Green *FR (Green Desert) Dam - High Finance *IRE (Entrepreneur *GB)
Watsdachances is the successful European without the typical European question marks.
She broke her maiden in April, going 5F on the turf in Ireland. After that, she was shipped to the U.S. where she's won both of her American starts. The first was a stakes race at Saratoga, going 1 1/16 miles on the firm turf. The second was a convincing victory in the Grade III Miss Grillo at Belmont, going 1 1/16 miles on the yielding turf.
My take: There's nothing not to like. She's proven at the distance, she's proven against solid competition, and the firm turf shouldn't be an issue. She's also got one of America's best turf trainers in Chad Brown. I'll absolutely be using her and consider her worthy of the favoritism she may get.
Done and done.
I'd love to hear your thoughts and opinions on the race, feel free to comment!
Happy horzing!
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