Unfortunately, I did not get to write nearly as many Breeder's Cup Previews as I would have hoped. Between work and traveling to the Breeder's Cup, there simply was not enough time. Next year, I hope to be able to complete more.
With that said, I think it's important for anyone who handicaps a horse race to review their opinions after the race is run; you can learn a lot from reviewing what you thought compared to what actually happened.
Even more importantly, I think anyone who makes their picks available for any kind of public viewing needs to own those picks after the fact.
People love to gloat about what they got right, but hate to admit, or even acknowledge, what they got wrong. This is a huge pet peeve of mine, HUGE.
Furthermore, I find it quite entertaining to review what I thought about a winner before it ran it's winning race. With that said, let's see what I had to say about this year's Juvenile Sprint winner:
Hightail: Sire - Mineshaft (AP Indy) Dam - Stormy Renee (Storm Cat)
Hightail is a 2YO colt that is 0 for his life. Not that this needs any
more explanation, but for further perspective, consider the following:
Alex Rodriguez batted .120 this postseason, he was 3 for 25.
Horrendous, right? He practically got booed out of New York.
Hightail's batting average is .000.
Now that I've given this colt the ARod treatment, let me say that he
hasn't run horribly in his 8 attempts. He's been aggressively placed in
one Grade III, two Grade II's, and one Grade I. He's also come close
to winning a few Maiden Special Weights finishing 2nd by a head, 3rd by
4+ lenghts, and 3rd by 1+ lengths. His 6th place effort last out in the
Grade I Breeders Futurity at Keenland was admirable.
I'm not sure what D. Wayne Lukas is doing with Hightail. I'm not sure
what D. Wayne Lukas is doing in general these days as the placement of
his horses is often confounding. Hightail might be a decent horse, but
he's been over his head time and time again. Sounds like the perfect
time to go from routing to sprinting and enter him in a Breeder's Cup
Race. That last sentence was a lie, I'm sorry I lied to you.
My take: The following makes more sense than Hightail in the BC and is also hilarious:
Lloyd:
That's a lovely accent you have. New Jersey?
Lady at bus stop:
Austria.
Lloyd:
Austria! Well, then. G'day mate! Let's put another shrimp on the barbie!
Lady at bus stop:
Let's not.
Dumb and Dumber never fails to make me laugh. There always a scenario
where a horse can pick up the pieces for 3rd, maybe Hightail can do
that. He'll be off my tickets though as I think we're more likely to
see Hightail giving his number to a filly in the stands around post time
than hitting the board.
And if that wasn't enough, I had a little more to say about Senor Hightail:
Quick note: I really laid into
Hightail back there, sorry Hightail. I still don't think he'll hit the
board, but the connections of Hazardous might be more deserving of the
Dumb and Dumber scolding. There's nothing I can do about the ARod
comparison though, the horse is actually batting .000. I think there's
something about D. Wayne Lukas that loads my burrito with habanero sauce
from hell. Perhaps it's his hat. I like funny and unnecessary hats
though, so that can't be it...
Ahhhh, the beauty of horse racing. Even without Beholder and Kauai Kate running in this race, I still thought Hightail would get romped. I was wrong and I'm sure, somewhere, D. Wayne Lukas was laughing at what that burrito with habanero sauce from hell did to me after the fact.
On to the Breeder's Cup Marathon winner:
Calidoscopio (Arg): Sire - Luhuk (Forty Niner) Dam - Calderona *Arg (Lefty)
This a straight up, 9YO horse. This stallion's been around the block.
For some reason when I saw "B. h. 9" in the PP's, the first thing I
thought of was this: http://www.hark.com/clips/dwxzwqnhfy-im-a-man-im-40
Look up Mike Gundy on youtube if you want to see the whole thing, it's about 3:30 minutes long.
If Calidoscopio could speak English:
"I'm Calidoscopio, I'm a man, I'm 9! I'm not a colt, I've got whole page of PP's all to myself, come after me!"
On to his chances in the Marathon. He's going to be a price, and I like him.
He's got 2 wins in 3 starts in 2012, the first by 3/4 of a length at 1
1/2 on dirt in Argentina, the second by 2 lengths at 1 9/16 miles in a
Group 2 race on dirt in Argentina.
He'll be coming off of a 4 month layoff, which I don't love. But, the
PP's are showing American works dating back to September which means
he's getting ready for this.
My take: He's
bred to go long, he's proven he can go long, and he's proven on the
dirt. Yes, he's 9 and will be making his first start in America. Like I
said, I'll only be betting this race as a part of multi-race wagers.
But, if you wanted my top choice, this 9YO is it. He'll be on my ticket
and I'm guessing we'll get at least 20-1 on him.
I picked the right Twix bar.
Boom, boom, boom. Now let me hear you say Wayo...WAYOOOOOOOOO!
Boom Boom Boom Video
This was what came into my head as Calidioscopio galloped on home for an easy victory. It was basically me and the Argentinian contingent, out at Santa Anita, acting like fools.
My thoughts on public displays of elation at the horse track:
I don't like them very much. If you actually own the horse or are somehow associated with the connections, get naked. Go for it. That's got to be an awesome feeling and you deserve to do whatever the moment dictates. But if you bet on a horse and won, don't gloat in front of your fellow horse players, must of whom probably just lost.
So, when I said I acted foolish after Calidoscopio's victory, I did. But, it involved some fist pumping and air humping behind one of the bathrooms located on the Santa Anita infield.
If your win brings in 5 digits or more, go crazy, otherwise find yourself a secluded spot and do your dance there.
So, I did end up betting on Calidoscopio to win and had him in the 1st and 2nd leg of two separate Pick 3's. And, despite all my distaste for Hightail, I hit the all button to start that Pick 3 (Hightail did blow up all of my other multi-race wagers).
Primed and ready to win pretty big, right? I've beat a 4-5 horse in the first leg with the longest shot on the board and just hit a 17-1 horse in a full field, just need to have the winner of the Juvenile Fillies Turf:
Flotilla (Fr): Sire - Mizzen Mast (Cozzene) Dam - Louvain *IRE (Sindaar *IRE)
Lacked room to run in her Group I attempt last out, finished 1+ length back in 4th.
Her name makes me think of a floating tortilla.
The firm turf, especially at Santa Anita, figures to be a big question
mark here. Flotilla has also yet to win going a mile or against Group
company.
My take: In such a wide open
field, there are others I like more. Just like the Marathon, I doubt
I'll be playing any exacta's, trifecta's, or superfecta's here, I'm only
looking for winners; The floating tortilla is not on my list.
Oh no. Oh no. Not the floating tortilla. Please, not the floating tortilla.
Oh yes, the floating tortilla.
Not much else to say here. I didn't like her and she beat me...to the tune of $3,495.40. Ouchie.
Heck of a race by Flotilla, she was much the best.
On to the winner of the last race I managed to preview, the Breeder's Cup Ladies Classic:
Hahahahaha, wow, this is embarrassing. As I look back at the preview now, Royal Delta got cut off. She's not anywhere to be found. I have no idea where she disappeared to. Hmmmmmmm?
Well, you'll just have to trust me when I say she was my second choice. I liked Awesome Feather better, but Royal Delta really brought the noise.
Great ride by Mike Smith realizing the speed bias and taking her straight to the lead. The way she ran, I'm guessing she would have won the Classic on Saturday as well, she's one heck of a horse.
A fun Breeder's Cup, that is for sure. I can't wait as we begin to gear up for another Triple Crown season and eventually make our way back to Santa Anita next year.
Quick thought:
I get the arguments about bringing the Breeder's Cup back to New York and the arguments that hate on Santa Anita for getting it 4 out of the last 6 years. However, the weather matters. It just does. On your biggest day of racing, you want the conditions to be perfect.
Santa Anita gives you the best shot at having perfect racing conditions. New York or Kentucky might have great weather in early November, but the odds favor California every single year.
I live in Chicago. Getting to Kentucky is a simple drive. It costs less than flying to California. I don't make a lot of money. I still like the Breeder's Cup at Santa Anita. Maybe not every year, but I'd have no problem if the pattern of 2 years on, 2 years off continued.
Happy horzing everyone.
Monday, November 26, 2012
Sunday, October 28, 2012
Breeder's Cup Ladies Classic Preview
I think the following is a perfect way to start of this preview of the Ladies Classic:
[From the movie, "Anchorman"]
Brian Fantana: [about Veronica] I'll give this little cookie an hour before we're doing the no-pants dance. Time to musk up.
[opens cologne cabinet]
Ron Burgundy: Wow. Never ceases to amaze me. What cologne you gonna go with? London Gentleman, or wait. No, no, no. Hold on. Blackbeard's Delight.
Brian Fantana: No, she gets a special cologne... It's called Sex Panther by Odeon. It's illegal in nine countries... Yep, it's made with bits of real panther, so you know it's good.
Ron Burgundy: It's quite pungent.
Brian Fantana: Oh yeah.
Ron Burgundy: It's a formidable scent... It stings the nostrils. In a good way.
Brian Fantana: Yep.
Ron Burgundy: Brian, I'm gonna be honest with you, that smells like pure gasoline.
Brian Fantana: They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time, it works every time.
[cheesy grin]
Ron Burgundy: That doesn't make sense.
Brian Fantana: Well... Let's go see if we can make this little kitty purr.
[snarls]
For further viewing pleasure, a link to the video clip: 60% of the time, it works every time
That link doesn't provide the best picture quality, but it's the only one I could find that highlights the specific exchange above.
You may be thinking I started off with this because it's the Ladies Classic and this scene is all about trying to get a lady.
You would be 90% wrong. 10% right, simply because it has to cross your mind. It makes sense. 10% sense, anyway.
The real reason this clip makes me think of the Ladies Classic:
"60% of the time, it works every time."
Or, in this case: 60% of the time these fillies win EVERY TIME.
That stat is actually 100% accurate. Below is each fillies lifetime record, at the bottom is their combined lifetime record.
Awesome Feather: 10/10
Class Included: 10/16
Grace Hall: 6/10
In Lingerie: 4/7
Include Me Out: 6/12
Love and Pride: 7/16
My Miss Aurelia: 6/6
Questing: 4/10
Royal Delta: 8/14
Combined record: 61/101 = .6039 = 60%
I could be wrong, but I think you'd be hard pressed to find another race of this significance with that kind of statistic. It's unbelievable. This is a special race.
Breeder's Cup Ladies Classic
Distance: 1 1/8 miles Surface: Dirt
Awesome Feather: Sire - Awesome of Course (Awesome Again) Dam - Precious Feather (Gone West)
A perfect 10 for 10 in her career, this filly is very lightly raced in 2012. She recorded an easy victory back in January, only to take an 8 month break from racing. She returned in late September to run in a 1 mile stakes race at Belmont that was to be used specifically as a prep for the Ladies Classic.
Despite the layoff, Awesome Feather appeared to be in top form as she romped by 11+ lengths and earned a career high 108 Beyer.
How many concerns can you have about a filly who's never lost?
It may be nitpicking, but there are a few. First, you have to wonder if she ran a little too big in her return to the races. Traditionally, horses coming into the Breeders Cup off a career Beyer tend to regress a bit. So, it's fair to wonder if she'll have enough left for this highly competitive race.
Second, while her 10 wins have been dominant, they haven't been against the best of competition. Of her 10 wins, only 2 are graded stakes victories. Her first came in the Grade I Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies in 2010, while her second came in the Grade I Gazelle in 2011.
My take: I think she's ready to win this race. Her race off the layoff was big, but it was easy. This filly has only gotten better with age and she'll finally have a chance to show it after injury concerns have keep her lightly raced. She's immensely talented, wins for fun, and looks ready to roll. She's my pick.
Class Included: Sire - Include (Broad Brush) Dam - A Classic Life (Sky Classic)
This 4YO filly enters the Ladies Classic on a 4 race winning streak. Additionally, she's 5 for 6 at the 1 1/8 miles distance with her only loss being a 2nd place finish in the 2011 version of the Ballerina Stakes at Hastings (she won this year's Grade III Ballerina).
With all of her races being at Emerald Downs and Hastings, you have to question the competition she's been facing. Her win in the 2012 Ballerina is her only graded stakes win to date.
My take: To win in this spot would be a tall task. She'll need the absolute perfect setup combined with the race of her life. With that said, I think she's got a shot at surprising many with an in the money performance. She truly appreciates the distance, which is more than I can say for many of these talented fillies. Not in my multi-race wagers, definitely a part of my trifecta ticket.
Grace Hall: Sire - Empire Maker (Unbridled) Dam - Season's Greetings *IRE (Ezzoud *IRE)
This 3YO filly has run a few races that might be good enough to win here. However, up to this point in her career, she's been unable to find any sort of consistency.
You never know when she's going to run big (Grade II Delaware Oaks, Grade II Indiana Oaks) or when she's going to appear uninterested (Grade I Kentucky Oaks, Grade I Alabama).
Unfortunately, her workouts don't provide much of a clue as to how she's coming into this race. They've looked nice and the times have been right, but she's worked well before big and poor performances.
My take: Too inconsistent for my taste and I think she prefers less that 1 1/8 miles. She's also finished behind In Lingerie, My Miss Aurelia, and Questing in previous races. In the money contender, although I'll be taking a stand against in all bets.
In Lingerie: Sire - Empire Maker (Unbridled) Dam - Cat Chat (Storm Cat)
Solid 3YO filly has 3 graded stakes victories in 2012. The first came at 1 mile over the synthetic track at Turf Paradise in the Grade III Burbonette Oaks, she won going away by 6. The second came as part of the Preakness under card in the Grade II Black Eyed Susan. That race was contested at 1 1/8 miles on the Pimlico dirt, In Lingerie closed to win by 1 1/4 lengths. Her third graded stakes win came last out in the Grade I Spinster at 1 1/8 miles over the Keenland synthetic track, she won by 2.
With 2 graded stakes wins at 1 1/8 miles, we can assume that the distance of the Ladies Classic will be to this fillies liking. However, the best of those 3 efforts both came over synthetic tracks, a surface which she appears to favor slightly over dirt.
My take: She's outclassed and there are other fillies who will take to the Santa Anita dirt better than she will. I'm comfortable tossing her from contention, I'd be surprised with an in the money finish.
Include Me Out: Sire - Include (Broad Brush) Dam - Don't Trick Her (Mazel Trick)
Horse for the course?
This 4YO filly has 3 wins, 1 place, and 1 show in 6 tries over the Santa Anita dirt track. You can eliminate any questions regarding how she'll like the hard going on race day.
To me, despite her win in the Grade II La Canada at 1 1/8 miles in the slop at Santa Anita, I don't think she's a true 9F filly. When facing lesser, can she win at 9 furlongs? As she's proven, the answer is yes.
But this is not an ordinary group of fillies. As a whole, it's probably the best field we've ever seen in the Ladies Classic. She will not face a better group than this.
My take: Her figures put her a notch below the top, but she's consistent and likes Santa Anita. When it comes down to it, I don't think she can win this race. There's just too much star power, and none of the top contenders should be forced to run too far out of their comfort zone. She can grab a piece, but will not be on my multi-race tickets.
Love and Pride: Sire - AP Indy (Seattle Slew) Dam - Ile de France (Storm Cat)
1 1/8 miles looks like her max, but she's proven she can handle it. Back in June she won the Grade III Obeah at Delaware going 1 1/8 miles earning a 95 Beyer in the process. After wilting on the front end of a 1 1/4 miles Grade II race in July, she came back to score in Grade I Personal Ensign going 1 1/8 miles on the Saratoga main track.
Her last out at Santa Anita, going 1 1/6 miles, earned her a career best 102 Beyer as she won the Grade I Zenyatta by 3 lengths after setting the pace early. It should be noted, however, that she had the lead all to herself and set moderate fractions. Some even insist there was a major rail bias that day.
My take: You have to like her chances more after her win on the Santa Anita track. However, her best race is one when she's got the lead all to herself and that's not going to happen here. The most likely scenario has her sitting just off the pace that's set by the quick filly, Questing. If that's the case, she'll be running in a group that likely includes My Miss Aurelia, Awesome Feather, Grace Hall, and perhaps Royal Delta. Should she challenge Questing on the lead, a duel would most likely do them both in. She's a notch below in terms of talent and the pace scenario makes it look impossible for her here. A toss for me.
My Miss Aurelia: Sire - Smart Strike (Mr. Prospector) Dam - My Miss Storm Cat (Sea of Secrets)
Just like Awesome Feather, My Miss Aurelia enters the Ladies Classic with an undefeated record. 4 of her 6 victories are graded stakes races victories. Some of her highlights include a 5 1/2 length romp in last years Grade I Frizette, a 3 length victory in last years Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies, and a narrow win last out against Questing in the Grade I Cotillion.
This 3YO filly is consistent, tested, and gives it her all every time out. Based on Beyer's, however, she would appear to be a cut below the likes of Royal Delta, Awesome Feather, and even Questing at her best.
This will also be her first try at 1 1/8 miles, although her pedigree suggests it should be within her scope.
My take: She has been receiving rave reviews from anyone and everyone that's seen her work leading up to this. Most think she's primed and ready to give her best effort, the only question is, is that enough? As far as I'm concerned, you cannot discount this filly. She grinds and grinds and grinds until, eventually, she reached the finish line first. I don't know if her best can beat a great race from Royal Delta or Awesome Feather, but I'm excited to find out. I'm also not going to be left in the cold if her best is good enough, this undefeated filly is a win contender and my tickets will reflect just that.
Questing (GB): Sire - Hard Spun (Danzig) Dam - Chercheuse (Seeking the Gold)
3YO filly had little to no success in Europe, in last year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies, or on turf here in America. Trying dirt for the second time in America, she burst on to the scene with a convincing victory in an Allowance Optional Claimer in June over a fast track at Belmont. While the race itself lacked talent, the Beyer of 105 that she received spoke volumes.
From there, she went on to a 4+ length victory in the Grade I CCA Oaks going 1 1/8 miles on the Saratoga dirt. In that race, she beat the likes of Zo Impressive and fellow Ladies Classic starter, In Lingerie.
In August, she took on more Grade I competition in the Alabama going 1 1/4 miles, again on the Saratoga dirt. Questing obliterated the field by 11, leading the whole way on the front end. Her final time of 2:01 and 1/5 translated to another impressive figure, this time 106.
Her 3 race streak of domination finally came to an end when she ran into My Miss Aurelia in the Grade I Cotillion. After having her way up front through most of the 1 1/16 mile race and setting moderate fractions of 25, 50, and 1:14, Questing lost the stretch battle.
Bottom line: This filly is talented and fast.
My take: With the plethora of talent and ability in this race, I can't see Questing winning this on the front. A repeat of her Alabama might make me eat my words, but that's the kind of race she'll need here. Regardless of what I think, she going to go to the front and try and stay there until the end. Like I said, I think she gets caught, but she'll sure be fun to watch. If I can afford to have her on multi-race tickets, I'll do it, but I'm comfortable if I can't. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see her off the board at the end.
This is going to be one heck of a race, hope everyone has a great time viewing it.
Feel free to comment on your thoughts or with your picks!!!
Happy horzing everyone, Breeder's Cup draw is tomorrow!!!!!!!!!!!!
[From the movie, "Anchorman"]
Brian Fantana: [about Veronica] I'll give this little cookie an hour before we're doing the no-pants dance. Time to musk up.
[opens cologne cabinet]
Ron Burgundy: Wow. Never ceases to amaze me. What cologne you gonna go with? London Gentleman, or wait. No, no, no. Hold on. Blackbeard's Delight.
Brian Fantana: No, she gets a special cologne... It's called Sex Panther by Odeon. It's illegal in nine countries... Yep, it's made with bits of real panther, so you know it's good.
Ron Burgundy: It's quite pungent.
Brian Fantana: Oh yeah.
Ron Burgundy: It's a formidable scent... It stings the nostrils. In a good way.
Brian Fantana: Yep.
Ron Burgundy: Brian, I'm gonna be honest with you, that smells like pure gasoline.
Brian Fantana: They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time, it works every time.
[cheesy grin]
Ron Burgundy: That doesn't make sense.
Brian Fantana: Well... Let's go see if we can make this little kitty purr.
[snarls]
For further viewing pleasure, a link to the video clip: 60% of the time, it works every time
That link doesn't provide the best picture quality, but it's the only one I could find that highlights the specific exchange above.
You may be thinking I started off with this because it's the Ladies Classic and this scene is all about trying to get a lady.
You would be 90% wrong. 10% right, simply because it has to cross your mind. It makes sense. 10% sense, anyway.
The real reason this clip makes me think of the Ladies Classic:
"60% of the time, it works every time."
Or, in this case: 60% of the time these fillies win EVERY TIME.
That stat is actually 100% accurate. Below is each fillies lifetime record, at the bottom is their combined lifetime record.
Awesome Feather: 10/10
Class Included: 10/16
Grace Hall: 6/10
In Lingerie: 4/7
Include Me Out: 6/12
Love and Pride: 7/16
My Miss Aurelia: 6/6
Questing: 4/10
Royal Delta: 8/14
Combined record: 61/101 = .6039 = 60%
I could be wrong, but I think you'd be hard pressed to find another race of this significance with that kind of statistic. It's unbelievable. This is a special race.
Breeder's Cup Ladies Classic
Distance: 1 1/8 miles Surface: Dirt
Awesome Feather: Sire - Awesome of Course (Awesome Again) Dam - Precious Feather (Gone West)
A perfect 10 for 10 in her career, this filly is very lightly raced in 2012. She recorded an easy victory back in January, only to take an 8 month break from racing. She returned in late September to run in a 1 mile stakes race at Belmont that was to be used specifically as a prep for the Ladies Classic.
Despite the layoff, Awesome Feather appeared to be in top form as she romped by 11+ lengths and earned a career high 108 Beyer.
How many concerns can you have about a filly who's never lost?
It may be nitpicking, but there are a few. First, you have to wonder if she ran a little too big in her return to the races. Traditionally, horses coming into the Breeders Cup off a career Beyer tend to regress a bit. So, it's fair to wonder if she'll have enough left for this highly competitive race.
Second, while her 10 wins have been dominant, they haven't been against the best of competition. Of her 10 wins, only 2 are graded stakes victories. Her first came in the Grade I Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies in 2010, while her second came in the Grade I Gazelle in 2011.
My take: I think she's ready to win this race. Her race off the layoff was big, but it was easy. This filly has only gotten better with age and she'll finally have a chance to show it after injury concerns have keep her lightly raced. She's immensely talented, wins for fun, and looks ready to roll. She's my pick.
Class Included: Sire - Include (Broad Brush) Dam - A Classic Life (Sky Classic)
This 4YO filly enters the Ladies Classic on a 4 race winning streak. Additionally, she's 5 for 6 at the 1 1/8 miles distance with her only loss being a 2nd place finish in the 2011 version of the Ballerina Stakes at Hastings (she won this year's Grade III Ballerina).
With all of her races being at Emerald Downs and Hastings, you have to question the competition she's been facing. Her win in the 2012 Ballerina is her only graded stakes win to date.
My take: To win in this spot would be a tall task. She'll need the absolute perfect setup combined with the race of her life. With that said, I think she's got a shot at surprising many with an in the money performance. She truly appreciates the distance, which is more than I can say for many of these talented fillies. Not in my multi-race wagers, definitely a part of my trifecta ticket.
Grace Hall: Sire - Empire Maker (Unbridled) Dam - Season's Greetings *IRE (Ezzoud *IRE)
This 3YO filly has run a few races that might be good enough to win here. However, up to this point in her career, she's been unable to find any sort of consistency.
You never know when she's going to run big (Grade II Delaware Oaks, Grade II Indiana Oaks) or when she's going to appear uninterested (Grade I Kentucky Oaks, Grade I Alabama).
Unfortunately, her workouts don't provide much of a clue as to how she's coming into this race. They've looked nice and the times have been right, but she's worked well before big and poor performances.
My take: Too inconsistent for my taste and I think she prefers less that 1 1/8 miles. She's also finished behind In Lingerie, My Miss Aurelia, and Questing in previous races. In the money contender, although I'll be taking a stand against in all bets.
In Lingerie: Sire - Empire Maker (Unbridled) Dam - Cat Chat (Storm Cat)
Solid 3YO filly has 3 graded stakes victories in 2012. The first came at 1 mile over the synthetic track at Turf Paradise in the Grade III Burbonette Oaks, she won going away by 6. The second came as part of the Preakness under card in the Grade II Black Eyed Susan. That race was contested at 1 1/8 miles on the Pimlico dirt, In Lingerie closed to win by 1 1/4 lengths. Her third graded stakes win came last out in the Grade I Spinster at 1 1/8 miles over the Keenland synthetic track, she won by 2.
With 2 graded stakes wins at 1 1/8 miles, we can assume that the distance of the Ladies Classic will be to this fillies liking. However, the best of those 3 efforts both came over synthetic tracks, a surface which she appears to favor slightly over dirt.
My take: She's outclassed and there are other fillies who will take to the Santa Anita dirt better than she will. I'm comfortable tossing her from contention, I'd be surprised with an in the money finish.
Include Me Out: Sire - Include (Broad Brush) Dam - Don't Trick Her (Mazel Trick)
Horse for the course?
This 4YO filly has 3 wins, 1 place, and 1 show in 6 tries over the Santa Anita dirt track. You can eliminate any questions regarding how she'll like the hard going on race day.
To me, despite her win in the Grade II La Canada at 1 1/8 miles in the slop at Santa Anita, I don't think she's a true 9F filly. When facing lesser, can she win at 9 furlongs? As she's proven, the answer is yes.
But this is not an ordinary group of fillies. As a whole, it's probably the best field we've ever seen in the Ladies Classic. She will not face a better group than this.
My take: Her figures put her a notch below the top, but she's consistent and likes Santa Anita. When it comes down to it, I don't think she can win this race. There's just too much star power, and none of the top contenders should be forced to run too far out of their comfort zone. She can grab a piece, but will not be on my multi-race tickets.
Love and Pride: Sire - AP Indy (Seattle Slew) Dam - Ile de France (Storm Cat)
1 1/8 miles looks like her max, but she's proven she can handle it. Back in June she won the Grade III Obeah at Delaware going 1 1/8 miles earning a 95 Beyer in the process. After wilting on the front end of a 1 1/4 miles Grade II race in July, she came back to score in Grade I Personal Ensign going 1 1/8 miles on the Saratoga main track.
Her last out at Santa Anita, going 1 1/6 miles, earned her a career best 102 Beyer as she won the Grade I Zenyatta by 3 lengths after setting the pace early. It should be noted, however, that she had the lead all to herself and set moderate fractions. Some even insist there was a major rail bias that day.
My take: You have to like her chances more after her win on the Santa Anita track. However, her best race is one when she's got the lead all to herself and that's not going to happen here. The most likely scenario has her sitting just off the pace that's set by the quick filly, Questing. If that's the case, she'll be running in a group that likely includes My Miss Aurelia, Awesome Feather, Grace Hall, and perhaps Royal Delta. Should she challenge Questing on the lead, a duel would most likely do them both in. She's a notch below in terms of talent and the pace scenario makes it look impossible for her here. A toss for me.
My Miss Aurelia: Sire - Smart Strike (Mr. Prospector) Dam - My Miss Storm Cat (Sea of Secrets)
Just like Awesome Feather, My Miss Aurelia enters the Ladies Classic with an undefeated record. 4 of her 6 victories are graded stakes races victories. Some of her highlights include a 5 1/2 length romp in last years Grade I Frizette, a 3 length victory in last years Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies, and a narrow win last out against Questing in the Grade I Cotillion.
This 3YO filly is consistent, tested, and gives it her all every time out. Based on Beyer's, however, she would appear to be a cut below the likes of Royal Delta, Awesome Feather, and even Questing at her best.
This will also be her first try at 1 1/8 miles, although her pedigree suggests it should be within her scope.
My take: She has been receiving rave reviews from anyone and everyone that's seen her work leading up to this. Most think she's primed and ready to give her best effort, the only question is, is that enough? As far as I'm concerned, you cannot discount this filly. She grinds and grinds and grinds until, eventually, she reached the finish line first. I don't know if her best can beat a great race from Royal Delta or Awesome Feather, but I'm excited to find out. I'm also not going to be left in the cold if her best is good enough, this undefeated filly is a win contender and my tickets will reflect just that.
Questing (GB): Sire - Hard Spun (Danzig) Dam - Chercheuse (Seeking the Gold)
3YO filly had little to no success in Europe, in last year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies, or on turf here in America. Trying dirt for the second time in America, she burst on to the scene with a convincing victory in an Allowance Optional Claimer in June over a fast track at Belmont. While the race itself lacked talent, the Beyer of 105 that she received spoke volumes.
From there, she went on to a 4+ length victory in the Grade I CCA Oaks going 1 1/8 miles on the Saratoga dirt. In that race, she beat the likes of Zo Impressive and fellow Ladies Classic starter, In Lingerie.
In August, she took on more Grade I competition in the Alabama going 1 1/4 miles, again on the Saratoga dirt. Questing obliterated the field by 11, leading the whole way on the front end. Her final time of 2:01 and 1/5 translated to another impressive figure, this time 106.
Her 3 race streak of domination finally came to an end when she ran into My Miss Aurelia in the Grade I Cotillion. After having her way up front through most of the 1 1/16 mile race and setting moderate fractions of 25, 50, and 1:14, Questing lost the stretch battle.
Bottom line: This filly is talented and fast.
My take: With the plethora of talent and ability in this race, I can't see Questing winning this on the front. A repeat of her Alabama might make me eat my words, but that's the kind of race she'll need here. Regardless of what I think, she going to go to the front and try and stay there until the end. Like I said, I think she gets caught, but she'll sure be fun to watch. If I can afford to have her on multi-race tickets, I'll do it, but I'm comfortable if I can't. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see her off the board at the end.
This is going to be one heck of a race, hope everyone has a great time viewing it.
Feel free to comment on your thoughts or with your picks!!!
Happy horzing everyone, Breeder's Cup draw is tomorrow!!!!!!!!!!!!
Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Preview
Breeder's Cup races are tough to handicap. Breeder's Cup Turf races, in particular, I think are the toughest. And then there are Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf races, which have just depantsed me over the years. I'm going to do my best to keep my pants on this year, giddyup.
Quick story before we get our preview on:
In 2008, a buddy and I decided we were going to attend the Breeder's Cup every year. We were pretty new to horzing at that point. Our viewership and attention to the sport had increased pretty quickly since our first two years in college (2003 and 2004). This decision basically marked our commitment to horse racing.
So, still pretty green to the horzing game, we were off to the Breeder's Cup.
The Juvenile Fillies Turf was the second BC race on the Friday card. We had just witnessed Ventura and Indian Blessing run 1-2 in the Filly & Mare Sprint. If I recall, I put in a $2 WPS on Indian Blessing. Let me tell you, I was in it to win it. Indian Blessing paid $3.40 to place and $2.40 to show. I lost .20 cents that race. Looking back on things, I truly had no idea what I was doing, but it was still awesome.
The Juvenile Fillies Turf had about 5 minutes to post, I was back at my seat, my wager was placed, I was primed and ready.
Back comes my buddy, with an obvious look of terror on his face. He says to me, "I just made an aggressive maneuver."
Let me preface things by saying we were 1 year out of college, had debts, and a very limited budget for wagering.
I asked my buddy what that could possibly mean, he says, "I just put in a $50 win bet."
Yeah, that was quite frisky for where each of us were at financially. I figured he put it on the 5-2 favorite, Laragh, in the hopes of doubling up.
Me: You put it on the 2?
Him: No, the 3.
Me: The 3? [I look up at the board]
Me: The 3 is 11-1?!?!?!?!
Him: I told you it was an aggressive maneuver.
Post time comes, the gates open, off they go.
Laragh takes control up front and not a single horse goes up to challenge her. As they make the turn, Laragh is still in control and has the look of a horse that has something left, she's primed. All of a sudden, a horse named Maram starts making steady progress up the middle of the track. Yes, Maram is the 3 horse. It doesn't look like she's going to catch Laragh, but she's coming.
They keep chugging towards the finish, Laragh is starting to run out of gas. Maram is still making progress. Holy shit. Maram passes Laragh, but a horse named Heart Shaped in flying late on the outside. Heart Shaped and Maram hit the wire together, photo finish.
After a tense few minutes, it's announced that Maram won by a nose. She paid $24.20, my friend had just won $605.
Having been only a year removed from college, we both still had a bit of that college party mentality. You know what I mean. Let me tell you, we drank $8 beers like they $2 cans of Keystone tall boys and had our selves an afternoon.
A healthy (or unhealthy, depending how you look at it) amount of beers in, I tried to beat Zenyatta in the Ladies Classic.
Hahahahahaha, yeah right.
The Breeder's Cup is awesome.
The Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Distance: 1 mile Surface: Turf (duh)
Flashy Ways: Sire - Catienus (Storm Cat) Dam - Golden Kitty (Carson City)
Someone I follow on twitter posted this the other day, I'm putting it here because it's awesome:
So you think the owners of Flashy Ways are big fans of Biggie? #Hypnotize
I don't know if she'd want her handle posted, so I won't. But, awesome thought. If you want to listen, click on "Hypnotize" above. That's gangsta rap at it's best, rappers today suck.
What if Tupac and Biggie are alive? What if Biggie secretly owns this horse? What if Tupac's got a horse in the Breeder's Cup as well? Perhaps they've taken their feud to the track. Maybe...just maybe...
This filly is the only one in this race to have won at a mile on the Santa Anita turf course. It was an impressive performance, so impressive that her connections ponied up the entry fee to get her in this race.
My take: The above is good enough for me. We know she'll handle the course and distance, which is more than we can say for any other filly in this field. Better yet, she'll likely be somewhere around 10-1. Yes please, I'll have that. Win contender, on my tickets.
Flotilla (Fr): Sire - Mizzen Mast (Cozzene) Dam - Louvain *IRE (Sindaar *IRE)
Lacked room to run in her Group I attempt last out, finished 1+ length back in 4th.
Her name makes me think of a floating tortilla.
The firm turf, especially at Santa Anita, figures to be a big question mark here. Flotilla has also yet to win going a mile or against Group company.
My take: In such a wide open field, there are others I like more. Just like the Marathon, I doubt I'll be playing any exacta's, trifecta's, or superfecta's here, I'm only looking for winners; The floating tortilla is not on my list.
Infanta Branca: Sire - Henrythenavigator (King Mambo) Dam - Totemic (Vanlandingham)
On the also eligible list, this filly will need some defections to make the field.
Kitten's Point: Sire - Kitten's Joy (El Prado *IRE) Dam - Rendezvous Point (Kingmambo)
Half sister to last years winner of this race, Stephanie's Kitten, Kitten's Point has had a nice start to her career. She broke her maiden first time out, winning a 6F race on Presque Isle's synthetic track. She followed up that effort with a solid 2nd place finish in the Grade III Jessamine at Keenland.
She's a dead closer and will undoubtedly be coming late. However, big closing moves in 1 mile turf races at Santa Anita typically don't yield the best results. Additionally, her figures in both races have come up a bit low.
My take: There's a lot to like here and I think Kitten's Point could be a filly to watch down the road. I don't like her in this spot though and will be looking elsewhere.
Manuka Honey: Sire - Borrego (El Prado *IRE) Dam - Al Max Dinner (End Sweep)
On the also eligible list, this filly will need some defections to make the field.
Moonwalk: Sire - Malibu Moon (AP Indy) Dam - Lucinda K (Red Ransom)
Pulled a stunner at 36-1 last out in the 1 1/16 mile Grade III Jessamine on the Keenland turf. That performance earned Moonwalk a free entry here, she probably wouldn't be here otherwise.
My take: A graded stakes win going 1 1/16 mile says something, but this field is much tougher than the one she faced in the Jessamine. A win would be a shock, an out of the money performance seems more likely.
Moulin de Mougin: Sire - Curlin (Smart Strike) Dam - Cambiocorsa (Avenue of Flags)
Curlin alert. I love watching the progeny of great horses I've seen in person and Curlin is among the best. However, this filly is on the also eligible list, so we'll have to wait and see.
Nancy O (Ire): Sire - Pivotal *GB (Polar Falcon) Dam - Arravale (Arch)
Nancy O had absolutely no where to go in the stretch run of the Grade II Natalma at Woodbine. She swerved out only to get blocked, went back inside only to get blocked, appeared to be clear, only to get blocked again. When she finally got to run straight ahead, she showed that she had a lot of run left and finished 3rd, 2 lengths behind the winner, Spring Venture.
I'm not sure she gets to Spring Venture even with a clear trip, but it would've been close.
Nancy O tried dirt for the first time in her last start, the Grade I Frizette at Belmont. Things went poorly and she was eventually eased up.
My take: This filly's going to be overlooked and could go off as one of the longest shots on the board. She's 0 for 4 thus far in her career and hasn't had any spectacular moments to suggest a big performance is coming. However, I think there's some talent here. I love the breeding and suggest you keep this filly in mind when filling out the bottom of your tri's and supers.
Oscar Party: Sire - Dixie Union (Dixieland Band) Dam - Dream Lady (Old Trieste)
After reading this filly's name, the first thing that probably comes to mind is some sort of party where everyone's watching the Oscars. However, Oscar the Grouch was the first thing that came to my mind. I don't know why, but that's what happened. I simply envisioned some sort of party that was being thrown by Oscar.
So, I did a little research. Guess what? It's happened and there's video to prove it. Check out the highlights from Oscar the Grouch's birthday celebration: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5sk9KYxC_M
Oscar Party the horse broke her maiden in September, going 7F on the firm turf course at Kentucky Downs. As part of that race, she beat the previously discussed Moonwalk. Her last effort in the Grade III Jessamine was decent, she finished 4th less than a length behind the winner, Moonwalk.
My take: With all that said, I don't like Oscar Party's chances here. To me, she's part of group of 5 or so American runners that I think have a shot to round out a trifecta or superfecta. I don't consider her a win contender.
Renee's Queen: Sire - After Market (Storm Cat) Dam - Mighty Renee (Maria's Mon)
Has her first preference as the Juvenile Fillies and will likely run there.
Sky Lantern: Sire - Red Clubs *Ire (Red Ransom) Dam - Shawanni *GB (Shareef Dancer)
Your likely favorite and for good reason. This filly hit the ground running, scoring in her first attempt going 6F at Goodwood (GB). She's run solid since and boasts a lifetime record of 3 wins and 2 places in 5 tries. Her 2 place efforts came against Group III company while one of her wins (her last start) was a Group I victory.
She's only run up to 7F thus far, but the extra furlong should not be an issue. The connections also seem to think that she'll enjoy the firm going at Santa Anita.
So, what's not to like?
Here's the question mark: Can't turn left?
Perhaps Sky Lantern's not an ambiturner? Derek Zoolander was the male models of male models, but he had one debilitating secret: he couldn't turn left.
Sky Lantern might have no issue turning left, but this will be her first time trying. All we can do is take a wait and see approach, but it's something to consider.
My take: Turning left, the Santa Anita course, 1 mile, and Sky Lantern's ability to perform off such a lengthy trip are all things to be wary off. This filly does appear to be the class of the field and might be as talented as she appears. She'll be in my multi-race wagers for sure, but I'd be hesitant to take anything under 4-1 when placing win bets.
****The Lasix Issue****
I haven't touched on it yet, but it absolutely deserves to be mentioned: there is no Lasix for 2 year olds at this years Breeder's Cup. As the Europeans have been running without it, we can assume their recent form will be an honest indication of where they are at on race day. For the American runners, it's a complete unknown. Personally, I don't see how you can incorporate this Lasix ban into your handicapping. It's true that you can't completely trust how an American horse will run without the drug. But, you can't predict with any level of confidence that Friday or Saturday will be the day a horse bleeds.
Know that the ban is in place, know that it adds risk to any wagers you make on Juvenile races, but don't let it change the way you handicap. Bet on the races and inherit the risk or don't bet, that's my 2 cents.
Spring Venture: Sire - Spring at Last (Silver Deputy) Dam - Zahwah (Rahay)
She's been nothing but impressive, winning all three of her career starts. 2 of those starts have been on the Woodbine turf, while the other was on the Woodbine synthetic track. The last two wins have been in graded stakes, the first being the Grade II Natalma (turf), and the second being the Grade Mazarine (synthetics).
She's also worked her way up in distance, starting a 7F, moving to 1 mile, and then on to 1 1/6 miles.
Her win in the Natalma was flattered by the second place finisher's (Spring in the Air) win in her next try, the Grade I Alcibiades.
There's not a lot to dislike here, especially among a group of lightly raced 2YO's.
You can question her competition up to this point, but graded wins are graded wins and she's got two of them.
The only thing that makes me pause are her Beyer's: 69 on firm course in her first try, 83 on a yielding course her second time out, and 73 last out on a synthetic track. The 83 puts her a cut above most here, but the other two figures fit right in with the middle of the pack.
My take: For all the praise I gave her, I'll be trying to beat her on Friday. The course at Santa Anita is going to be firm and for me, there's a question as to whether or not that's how she likes it. She'll vie for favoritism, so beating her will certainly provide value. If you play against her as well, just remember, she's 3 for 3 and you can only be mad at yourself if she goes 4 for 4.
Summer of Fun: Sire - Include (Broad Brush) Dam - Royal Innocence (Royal Anthem)
This filly broke her maiden back in August, winning at 1 1/6 miles on the firm Saratoga turf. Since then, she's recorded a 10th place finish in the Grade II Natalma and a 3rd place finish in the Grade III Jessamine.
My take: Having already been beaten by horses I won't be using (Spring Venture, Moonwalk, Kitten's Point) I can't possibly support this filly here. It will take a big step up for her to finish in the money.
Sustained: Sire - War Front (Danzig) Dam - Sweetstorm Amy (Lemon Drop Kid)
She's a nice filly who appears to be on the up and up. After breaking her maiden at Saratoga going 1 /16 miles on the turf, she tried the Grade III Miss Grillo. There, she put in a solid effort, finishing 2nd, 2+ lengths behind the winner, Watsdachances.
My take: There's room for improvement here, I just don't think it's going to come all at once and in this race. She can certainly put in a big effort, I wouldn't put an in the money performance past her. I do not, however, consider her a win contender.
Tara From the Cape: Sire - Leroidesanimaux *BRZ (Candy Stripes) Dam - Royal Irish Lass (Saint Ballado)
She just took up 2 lines with her name and pedigree info, she's the first one to do that. Sign?
I don't think so, although I like her and think she may have a solid future.
She broke her maiden on the turf at Delaware going 7 1/2F, proceeded to finish 3rd to Watsdachances in a stakes race on turf, and then finished a fading 4th in the Grade I Alcibiades.
My take: I'd imagine Todd Pletcher will make some noise at some point during the Breeder's Cup, but I don't think it will be here. I put this filly among the bunch that could hit the board at a price, I don't think she can win.
The Gold Cheongasm (Ire): Sire - Red Clubs *IRE (Red Ransom) Dam - Fuerta Ventura *IRE (Desert Sun *GB)
Another 2 liner, actually makes me feel a little better.
This filly rattled off three straight wins from July to September before stepping up in competition her last two out. In late September, she was given a big shot in a Group I race at Newmarket with Frankie Dettori aboard only to 11th. She came back in the Tattersalls Millons 2YO Fillies Trophy at 7F and went off as the favorite, only to finish a closing 3rd.
My take: She's a European, so she's got that going for her. Up to this point, she hasn't lived up to her potential and doesn't have the track record of success that a filly like Sky Lantern has. I can't say I'd be shocked by any European winning here, but she's on the outside looking in.
Waterway Run: Sire - Arch (Kris S.) Dam - Princess Consort (Dixieland Band)
Pennsylvania bred as spent her entire career in England up to this point. She comes here off of back to back wins, the latter being against Group III company at Newmarket.
She's looked good in her two victories and will have all of the same questions as the other European shippers. Something that does intrigue me is her ability to flash a little speed. While a front running style doesn't usually win this race, the lead looks like it will be there for the taking. Waterway Run isn't a front runner, per se, but it was a style she used successfully to break her maiden.
My take: I like this filly and think she could go a bit overlooked on Friday. I'll be interested to see where she draws on Monday, but in a race that lacks pace, she could be the one who tries to steal it on the front. I consider her a win contender and will use her in my multi-race wagers.
Watsdachances (Ire): Sire - Diamond Green *FR (Green Desert) Dam - High Finance *IRE (Entrepreneur *GB)
Watsdachances is the successful European without the typical European question marks.
She broke her maiden in April, going 5F on the turf in Ireland. After that, she was shipped to the U.S. where she's won both of her American starts. The first was a stakes race at Saratoga, going 1 1/16 miles on the firm turf. The second was a convincing victory in the Grade III Miss Grillo at Belmont, going 1 1/16 miles on the yielding turf.
My take: There's nothing not to like. She's proven at the distance, she's proven against solid competition, and the firm turf shouldn't be an issue. She's also got one of America's best turf trainers in Chad Brown. I'll absolutely be using her and consider her worthy of the favoritism she may get.
Done and done.
I'd love to hear your thoughts and opinions on the race, feel free to comment!
Happy horzing!
Quick story before we get our preview on:
In 2008, a buddy and I decided we were going to attend the Breeder's Cup every year. We were pretty new to horzing at that point. Our viewership and attention to the sport had increased pretty quickly since our first two years in college (2003 and 2004). This decision basically marked our commitment to horse racing.
So, still pretty green to the horzing game, we were off to the Breeder's Cup.
The Juvenile Fillies Turf was the second BC race on the Friday card. We had just witnessed Ventura and Indian Blessing run 1-2 in the Filly & Mare Sprint. If I recall, I put in a $2 WPS on Indian Blessing. Let me tell you, I was in it to win it. Indian Blessing paid $3.40 to place and $2.40 to show. I lost .20 cents that race. Looking back on things, I truly had no idea what I was doing, but it was still awesome.
The Juvenile Fillies Turf had about 5 minutes to post, I was back at my seat, my wager was placed, I was primed and ready.
Back comes my buddy, with an obvious look of terror on his face. He says to me, "I just made an aggressive maneuver."
Let me preface things by saying we were 1 year out of college, had debts, and a very limited budget for wagering.
I asked my buddy what that could possibly mean, he says, "I just put in a $50 win bet."
Yeah, that was quite frisky for where each of us were at financially. I figured he put it on the 5-2 favorite, Laragh, in the hopes of doubling up.
Me: You put it on the 2?
Him: No, the 3.
Me: The 3? [I look up at the board]
Me: The 3 is 11-1?!?!?!?!
Him: I told you it was an aggressive maneuver.
Post time comes, the gates open, off they go.
Laragh takes control up front and not a single horse goes up to challenge her. As they make the turn, Laragh is still in control and has the look of a horse that has something left, she's primed. All of a sudden, a horse named Maram starts making steady progress up the middle of the track. Yes, Maram is the 3 horse. It doesn't look like she's going to catch Laragh, but she's coming.
They keep chugging towards the finish, Laragh is starting to run out of gas. Maram is still making progress. Holy shit. Maram passes Laragh, but a horse named Heart Shaped in flying late on the outside. Heart Shaped and Maram hit the wire together, photo finish.
After a tense few minutes, it's announced that Maram won by a nose. She paid $24.20, my friend had just won $605.
Having been only a year removed from college, we both still had a bit of that college party mentality. You know what I mean. Let me tell you, we drank $8 beers like they $2 cans of Keystone tall boys and had our selves an afternoon.
A healthy (or unhealthy, depending how you look at it) amount of beers in, I tried to beat Zenyatta in the Ladies Classic.
Hahahahahaha, yeah right.
The Breeder's Cup is awesome.
The Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Distance: 1 mile Surface: Turf (duh)
Flashy Ways: Sire - Catienus (Storm Cat) Dam - Golden Kitty (Carson City)
Someone I follow on twitter posted this the other day, I'm putting it here because it's awesome:
So you think the owners of Flashy Ways are big fans of Biggie? #Hypnotize
I don't know if she'd want her handle posted, so I won't. But, awesome thought. If you want to listen, click on "Hypnotize" above. That's gangsta rap at it's best, rappers today suck.
What if Tupac and Biggie are alive? What if Biggie secretly owns this horse? What if Tupac's got a horse in the Breeder's Cup as well? Perhaps they've taken their feud to the track. Maybe...just maybe...
This filly is the only one in this race to have won at a mile on the Santa Anita turf course. It was an impressive performance, so impressive that her connections ponied up the entry fee to get her in this race.
My take: The above is good enough for me. We know she'll handle the course and distance, which is more than we can say for any other filly in this field. Better yet, she'll likely be somewhere around 10-1. Yes please, I'll have that. Win contender, on my tickets.
Flotilla (Fr): Sire - Mizzen Mast (Cozzene) Dam - Louvain *IRE (Sindaar *IRE)
Lacked room to run in her Group I attempt last out, finished 1+ length back in 4th.
Her name makes me think of a floating tortilla.
The firm turf, especially at Santa Anita, figures to be a big question mark here. Flotilla has also yet to win going a mile or against Group company.
My take: In such a wide open field, there are others I like more. Just like the Marathon, I doubt I'll be playing any exacta's, trifecta's, or superfecta's here, I'm only looking for winners; The floating tortilla is not on my list.
Infanta Branca: Sire - Henrythenavigator (King Mambo) Dam - Totemic (Vanlandingham)
On the also eligible list, this filly will need some defections to make the field.
Kitten's Point: Sire - Kitten's Joy (El Prado *IRE) Dam - Rendezvous Point (Kingmambo)
Half sister to last years winner of this race, Stephanie's Kitten, Kitten's Point has had a nice start to her career. She broke her maiden first time out, winning a 6F race on Presque Isle's synthetic track. She followed up that effort with a solid 2nd place finish in the Grade III Jessamine at Keenland.
She's a dead closer and will undoubtedly be coming late. However, big closing moves in 1 mile turf races at Santa Anita typically don't yield the best results. Additionally, her figures in both races have come up a bit low.
My take: There's a lot to like here and I think Kitten's Point could be a filly to watch down the road. I don't like her in this spot though and will be looking elsewhere.
Manuka Honey: Sire - Borrego (El Prado *IRE) Dam - Al Max Dinner (End Sweep)
On the also eligible list, this filly will need some defections to make the field.
Moonwalk: Sire - Malibu Moon (AP Indy) Dam - Lucinda K (Red Ransom)
Pulled a stunner at 36-1 last out in the 1 1/16 mile Grade III Jessamine on the Keenland turf. That performance earned Moonwalk a free entry here, she probably wouldn't be here otherwise.
My take: A graded stakes win going 1 1/16 mile says something, but this field is much tougher than the one she faced in the Jessamine. A win would be a shock, an out of the money performance seems more likely.
Moulin de Mougin: Sire - Curlin (Smart Strike) Dam - Cambiocorsa (Avenue of Flags)
Curlin alert. I love watching the progeny of great horses I've seen in person and Curlin is among the best. However, this filly is on the also eligible list, so we'll have to wait and see.
Nancy O (Ire): Sire - Pivotal *GB (Polar Falcon) Dam - Arravale (Arch)
Nancy O had absolutely no where to go in the stretch run of the Grade II Natalma at Woodbine. She swerved out only to get blocked, went back inside only to get blocked, appeared to be clear, only to get blocked again. When she finally got to run straight ahead, she showed that she had a lot of run left and finished 3rd, 2 lengths behind the winner, Spring Venture.
I'm not sure she gets to Spring Venture even with a clear trip, but it would've been close.
Nancy O tried dirt for the first time in her last start, the Grade I Frizette at Belmont. Things went poorly and she was eventually eased up.
My take: This filly's going to be overlooked and could go off as one of the longest shots on the board. She's 0 for 4 thus far in her career and hasn't had any spectacular moments to suggest a big performance is coming. However, I think there's some talent here. I love the breeding and suggest you keep this filly in mind when filling out the bottom of your tri's and supers.
Oscar Party: Sire - Dixie Union (Dixieland Band) Dam - Dream Lady (Old Trieste)
After reading this filly's name, the first thing that probably comes to mind is some sort of party where everyone's watching the Oscars. However, Oscar the Grouch was the first thing that came to my mind. I don't know why, but that's what happened. I simply envisioned some sort of party that was being thrown by Oscar.
So, I did a little research. Guess what? It's happened and there's video to prove it. Check out the highlights from Oscar the Grouch's birthday celebration: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5sk9KYxC_M
Oscar Party the horse broke her maiden in September, going 7F on the firm turf course at Kentucky Downs. As part of that race, she beat the previously discussed Moonwalk. Her last effort in the Grade III Jessamine was decent, she finished 4th less than a length behind the winner, Moonwalk.
My take: With all that said, I don't like Oscar Party's chances here. To me, she's part of group of 5 or so American runners that I think have a shot to round out a trifecta or superfecta. I don't consider her a win contender.
Renee's Queen: Sire - After Market (Storm Cat) Dam - Mighty Renee (Maria's Mon)
Has her first preference as the Juvenile Fillies and will likely run there.
Sky Lantern: Sire - Red Clubs *Ire (Red Ransom) Dam - Shawanni *GB (Shareef Dancer)
Your likely favorite and for good reason. This filly hit the ground running, scoring in her first attempt going 6F at Goodwood (GB). She's run solid since and boasts a lifetime record of 3 wins and 2 places in 5 tries. Her 2 place efforts came against Group III company while one of her wins (her last start) was a Group I victory.
She's only run up to 7F thus far, but the extra furlong should not be an issue. The connections also seem to think that she'll enjoy the firm going at Santa Anita.
So, what's not to like?
Here's the question mark: Can't turn left?
Perhaps Sky Lantern's not an ambiturner? Derek Zoolander was the male models of male models, but he had one debilitating secret: he couldn't turn left.
Sky Lantern might have no issue turning left, but this will be her first time trying. All we can do is take a wait and see approach, but it's something to consider.
My take: Turning left, the Santa Anita course, 1 mile, and Sky Lantern's ability to perform off such a lengthy trip are all things to be wary off. This filly does appear to be the class of the field and might be as talented as she appears. She'll be in my multi-race wagers for sure, but I'd be hesitant to take anything under 4-1 when placing win bets.
****The Lasix Issue****
I haven't touched on it yet, but it absolutely deserves to be mentioned: there is no Lasix for 2 year olds at this years Breeder's Cup. As the Europeans have been running without it, we can assume their recent form will be an honest indication of where they are at on race day. For the American runners, it's a complete unknown. Personally, I don't see how you can incorporate this Lasix ban into your handicapping. It's true that you can't completely trust how an American horse will run without the drug. But, you can't predict with any level of confidence that Friday or Saturday will be the day a horse bleeds.
Know that the ban is in place, know that it adds risk to any wagers you make on Juvenile races, but don't let it change the way you handicap. Bet on the races and inherit the risk or don't bet, that's my 2 cents.
Spring Venture: Sire - Spring at Last (Silver Deputy) Dam - Zahwah (Rahay)
She's been nothing but impressive, winning all three of her career starts. 2 of those starts have been on the Woodbine turf, while the other was on the Woodbine synthetic track. The last two wins have been in graded stakes, the first being the Grade II Natalma (turf), and the second being the Grade Mazarine (synthetics).
She's also worked her way up in distance, starting a 7F, moving to 1 mile, and then on to 1 1/6 miles.
Her win in the Natalma was flattered by the second place finisher's (Spring in the Air) win in her next try, the Grade I Alcibiades.
There's not a lot to dislike here, especially among a group of lightly raced 2YO's.
You can question her competition up to this point, but graded wins are graded wins and she's got two of them.
The only thing that makes me pause are her Beyer's: 69 on firm course in her first try, 83 on a yielding course her second time out, and 73 last out on a synthetic track. The 83 puts her a cut above most here, but the other two figures fit right in with the middle of the pack.
My take: For all the praise I gave her, I'll be trying to beat her on Friday. The course at Santa Anita is going to be firm and for me, there's a question as to whether or not that's how she likes it. She'll vie for favoritism, so beating her will certainly provide value. If you play against her as well, just remember, she's 3 for 3 and you can only be mad at yourself if she goes 4 for 4.
Summer of Fun: Sire - Include (Broad Brush) Dam - Royal Innocence (Royal Anthem)
This filly broke her maiden back in August, winning at 1 1/6 miles on the firm Saratoga turf. Since then, she's recorded a 10th place finish in the Grade II Natalma and a 3rd place finish in the Grade III Jessamine.
My take: Having already been beaten by horses I won't be using (Spring Venture, Moonwalk, Kitten's Point) I can't possibly support this filly here. It will take a big step up for her to finish in the money.
Sustained: Sire - War Front (Danzig) Dam - Sweetstorm Amy (Lemon Drop Kid)
She's a nice filly who appears to be on the up and up. After breaking her maiden at Saratoga going 1 /16 miles on the turf, she tried the Grade III Miss Grillo. There, she put in a solid effort, finishing 2nd, 2+ lengths behind the winner, Watsdachances.
My take: There's room for improvement here, I just don't think it's going to come all at once and in this race. She can certainly put in a big effort, I wouldn't put an in the money performance past her. I do not, however, consider her a win contender.
Tara From the Cape: Sire - Leroidesanimaux *BRZ (Candy Stripes) Dam - Royal Irish Lass (Saint Ballado)
She just took up 2 lines with her name and pedigree info, she's the first one to do that. Sign?
I don't think so, although I like her and think she may have a solid future.
She broke her maiden on the turf at Delaware going 7 1/2F, proceeded to finish 3rd to Watsdachances in a stakes race on turf, and then finished a fading 4th in the Grade I Alcibiades.
My take: I'd imagine Todd Pletcher will make some noise at some point during the Breeder's Cup, but I don't think it will be here. I put this filly among the bunch that could hit the board at a price, I don't think she can win.
The Gold Cheongasm (Ire): Sire - Red Clubs *IRE (Red Ransom) Dam - Fuerta Ventura *IRE (Desert Sun *GB)
Another 2 liner, actually makes me feel a little better.
This filly rattled off three straight wins from July to September before stepping up in competition her last two out. In late September, she was given a big shot in a Group I race at Newmarket with Frankie Dettori aboard only to 11th. She came back in the Tattersalls Millons 2YO Fillies Trophy at 7F and went off as the favorite, only to finish a closing 3rd.
My take: She's a European, so she's got that going for her. Up to this point, she hasn't lived up to her potential and doesn't have the track record of success that a filly like Sky Lantern has. I can't say I'd be shocked by any European winning here, but she's on the outside looking in.
Waterway Run: Sire - Arch (Kris S.) Dam - Princess Consort (Dixieland Band)
Pennsylvania bred as spent her entire career in England up to this point. She comes here off of back to back wins, the latter being against Group III company at Newmarket.
She's looked good in her two victories and will have all of the same questions as the other European shippers. Something that does intrigue me is her ability to flash a little speed. While a front running style doesn't usually win this race, the lead looks like it will be there for the taking. Waterway Run isn't a front runner, per se, but it was a style she used successfully to break her maiden.
My take: I like this filly and think she could go a bit overlooked on Friday. I'll be interested to see where she draws on Monday, but in a race that lacks pace, she could be the one who tries to steal it on the front. I consider her a win contender and will use her in my multi-race wagers.
Watsdachances (Ire): Sire - Diamond Green *FR (Green Desert) Dam - High Finance *IRE (Entrepreneur *GB)
Watsdachances is the successful European without the typical European question marks.
She broke her maiden in April, going 5F on the turf in Ireland. After that, she was shipped to the U.S. where she's won both of her American starts. The first was a stakes race at Saratoga, going 1 1/16 miles on the firm turf. The second was a convincing victory in the Grade III Miss Grillo at Belmont, going 1 1/16 miles on the yielding turf.
My take: There's nothing not to like. She's proven at the distance, she's proven against solid competition, and the firm turf shouldn't be an issue. She's also got one of America's best turf trainers in Chad Brown. I'll absolutely be using her and consider her worthy of the favoritism she may get.
Done and done.
I'd love to hear your thoughts and opinions on the race, feel free to comment!
Happy horzing!
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Breeder's Cup Marathon Preview
It's time to preview the Breeder's Cup Marathon.
I'm going to sum it all up with one statement, ready?
They are all Twix bars.
And there you have it, good luck with this second Breeder's Cup race on the Friday card!
I suppose I owe some semblance of an explanation. Then, perhaps, I'll run through the horses as well. We'll see.
Back to the Twix bar, watch this clip:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72gsdsL26po&feature=relmfu
Seinfeld is such a treat, all the time, every time. I legitimately just wasted half an hour watching other Seinfeld clips, despite the fact that it took me all but 30 seconds to find the one I was looking for.
Twix Bar.
The Marathon is just a big candy lineup and the Breeder's Cup just laughs at anyone who tries to decipher which candy bar is which. Why? Because they are all Twix bars!!!!!!!
None of these horses belong in this race. In that sense, they are all the same.
Either they are horses who have run the distance and have never tried the dirt, or they are horses who have run on dirt but have never tried the distance.
So, we've got all these horses with the most basic questions marks you can think of when handicapping. Distance? Surface?
Pick your favorite candy bar in the world, the one you know and love the best. You know the taste. You know the smell. You know the texture. You know how exactly how it reacts in different climates. You've gotten to know each other so well that it recently invited you to join it's book club.
Now find your candy bar in this Breeder's Cup candy lineup.
You can't, it's a setup.
Even if you come back after the race is run and tell me that you did it, you found your Snickers bar in the candy lineup and it paid $18.00, I'll still tell you that you were wrong.
You didn't find your Snickers bar, not in this race. You simply picked the right Twix bar.
Breeder's Cup Marathon
Post time: 1:48pm Pacific Time Distance: 1 3/4 Miles (14F) Surface: Dirt
Almundena (Per) Sire- Silver Planet *Arg (Fitzcarraldo *Arg) Dam - Fire Legend *Arg (Engrillado *Arg)
This 5YO mare had a pretty successful 2011 campaign in Peru with four 1st place finishes and three 2nd place finishes. One of those wins came in Group II company while one of the place performances came against Group I company. On the downside, all of those race were on turf and the furthest of those races was 1 1/2 miles.
Almundena hasn't been nearly as consistent on dirt as she has on turf. In the past 2 years, she's only got one in the money performance on dirt; a 2nd place effort at 1 1/4 miles in Group I company in Argentina.
It's hard to gauge Almundena's form for the Marathon as she hasn't run since May 25 of this year.
My take: This is going to be a theme, there are just too many questions marks here to back this horse. Although she's apparently been full of run at the end of a few 1 1/2 mile races, that doesn't mean she'll like 1 3/4 miles. That, combined with the layoff and lack of dirt form make her a toss for me.
NOTE: I'll only be using this race in multi-race wagers, not a chance I try and tackle the exacta, trifecta, or superfecta.
Antigun: Sire - Istan (Gone West) Dam - Rimini Road (Dynaformer)
You might remember seeing this 3YO colt in a couple of Derby preps (G II Rebel, G I Arkansas), a Triple Crown race (G I Belmont), a couple big summer races for 3YO's (G II Jim Dandy, G I Travers), or taking on older horses in the Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup.
Wow! Classy horse, done deal, sign me up.
Not so fast. Antigun, while having been placed in top caliber races, is not a top caliber horse. His efforts in each of the races above left a lot to be desired. He finished 11th by 9+ in the Rebel, 5th by 11+ in the Arkansas, 6th by 7 in the Jim Dandy, 4th by 1+ in the Travers, and 4th by 7+ in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. His shining moment thus far came in the Belmont where he finished 3rd, 2 back from the winner, Union Rags.
Antigun definitely is in need of a little class relief and the Marathon will certainly provide that.
So then the question becomes, can he handle the surface and distance?
Dirt should not be a problem, that's the surface he's meant to run on. Distance, however, could be an issue.
Many will point to his solid effort in the Belmont and automatically assume that the more distance the better for Antigun. And yes, he does get some stamina from his damsire, Dynaformer. But, I'm far from convinced. Progeny of Atigun's sire, Gone West, typically don't like to go much more than a mile. Stretching out to take a stab in the Belmont is one thing, stretching out even further to try 1 3/4 miles is another.
My take: While this will be the easiest bunch he's run against in a while, I think the distance will be too much to overcome. Maybe he can grab a piece of the exotics, but he's not on my list of potential winners and will likely be over bet.
Balladry: Sire - Unbridled's Song (Unbridled) Dam - Storm Song (Summer Squall)
A 4YO colt who's best effort in 2012 came in a 50k Allowance race at 1 1/6 mile on the synthetic track at Hollywood.
Obviously there's a lot more I could say, but the above sentence really sums things up for me.
Balladry's not bred to go long, was backing up at the end of his two tries at longer distances (1 1/2 miles and 1 3/8 miles), and appears to prefer synthetics to dirt.
My take: I'm going to go ahead and let the Good News Korean Dance Corp give you my take on Balladry's chances in the Marathon, enjoy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RajXWNTULBA
If you don't click on the link, you're missing out. However, her are a few of the lyrics to the song that they dance to courtesy of Atomic Kitten:
So, Balladry, see ya
All right (oh, yeah)
I wouldn't wanna be ya tonight
Let me make it clear, all right
You're not the one for me, yeah
Yeah, yeah, yeah
Calidoscopio (Arg): Sire - Luhuk (Forty Niner) Dam - Calderona *Arg (Lefty)
This a straight up, 9YO horse. This stallion's been around the block. For some reason when I saw "B. h. 9" in the PP's, the first thing I thought of was this: http://www.hark.com/clips/dwxzwqnhfy-im-a-man-im-40
Look up Mike Gundy on youtube if you want to see the whole thing, it's about 3:30 minutes long.
If Calidoscopio could speak English:
"I'm Calidoscopio, I'm a man, I'm 9! I'm not a colt, I've got whole page of PP's all to myself, come after me!"
On to his chances in the Marathon. He's going to be a price, and I like him.
He's got 2 wins in 3 starts in 2012, the first by 3/4 of a length at 1 1/2 on dirt in Argentina, the second by 2 lengths at 1 9/16 miles in a Group 2 race on dirt in Argentina.
He'll be coming off of a 4 month layoff, which I don't love. But, the PP's are showing American works dating back to September which means he's getting ready for this.
My take: He's bred to go long, he's proven he can go long, and he's proven on the dirt. Yes, he's 9 and will be making his first start in America. Like I said, I'll only be betting this race as a part of multi-race wagers. But, if you wanted my top choice, this 9YO is it. He'll be on my ticket and I'm guessing we'll get at least 20-1 on him.
Commander: Sire - Broken Vow (Unbridled) Dam - Pout (Deputy Minister)
4YO colt enters the Marathon on a 6 race winning streak where his average margin of victory has been about 4 1/2 lengths.
My favorite baseball team, the Chicago Cubs played 162 games this year. Not once, did they manage to put together a 6 game winning streak. Commander has raced 9 times in 2012. It took Commander 9 races to do what the Cubs couldn't in 162 games. This is the life of a Cubs fan. I remain optimistic that Theo will turn it around though, celebration monster (see the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Preview) will make an appearance someday.
Commander will be the unquestioned speed in this race, he fires to the lead every time. The question will be, can he hang on for 1 3/4 mile? When stretched out to 1 3/8 mile last out he won a Grade III race, but his margin of victory (a head) paled in comparison to his dominating efforts at 1 mile and 1 1/16 miles. Was it the distance or the hike in class that made him work? Probably a combination of both.
My take: If you bet on Commander, you're pretty much guaranteed to have a exciting viewing experience. This horse is going to lead this group as far as he can, I just don't think he can quite lead them for the full 1 3/4 miles. The hard and fast track at Santa Anita should help his cause, but I'll be taking a somewhat reluctant stand against this horse.
Eldaafer: Sire - AP Indy (Seattle Slew) Dam - Habibti (Tabasco Cat)
This 7YO gelding just keeps chugging along, this will be his 4th consecutive Breeder's Cup Marathon. He won the Marathon at Churchill in 2010 and had forgettable performances in 2009 and 2011.
If history is any indication, Eldaafer's performance in the Marathon will be directly tied to his recent form. When he got blown away in the 2009 Marathon, he was coming off a 20 length loss in the Hawthorne Gold Cup. When he won in 2010, he was coming off a victory in the Grade III Turf Paradise Fall Challenge. When he lost last years 2011 Marathon by 17, he had finished 2nd in a 84k stakes race 2 months prior.
Eldaafer's last two races have been his best in awhile. He enters this Marathon off a 3rd place performance in the Grade III Hawthorne Gold Cup, a race that earned him a 99 Beyer.
My take: Even though he's got some wins at 1 1/2 miles and a win in the 2010 Marathon, I think 1 3/4 miles is too much for him. He's proven he can be there at the end, the surface won't be an issue, but I have to imagine there's someone in this full field that will reach the finish line first. There are 3 others that I like ahead of him, but Eldaafer will round out my top 4 and be on any Pick 3 ticket I play.
Fame and Glory: Montjeu *Ire (Sadler's Well) Dam - Gryada *GB (Shirely Heights *GB)
This 6YO stallion is bred like a champ. Montjeu proved himself to be a spectacular sire before his untimely passing this year and Sadler's Well is one of Europe's all time great sires, if not the best ever.
His pedigree points to stamina as a huge strength and it shows in his 14 wins out of 25 starts, some all the way up to 2 1/2 miles in distance. His best days may, however, may be behind him as he hasn't hit the board in any of his 3 attempts against Group company in 2012.
The biggest question with this classy stallion will be the switch from turf to dirt. There's really no way of knowing how Fame and Glory will react to the Santa Anita dirt course. However, he is in the hands of world class trainer, Aidan O'Brien.
My take: Fame and Glory will mostly likely go off at double digit odds to win this race. The combination of his stamina and the fact that Aidan O'Brien is his trainer makes me want to take a shot on this horse. But, I'm going to hold off. The only reason he's here is because he's off form in Europe and his connections think he can simply outclass this field. They may be right, but I'll be looking elsewhere.
Grassy: Sire - El Prado *IRE (Sadler's Well) Dam - High Savannah *GB (Rousillon)
Grassy is a 6YO stallion. Grassy has 19 career starts. All of Grassy's starts have been on the grass.
Do you ever get the feeling that a horse is going to beat you? You know, the feeling that a horses inclusion or exclusion from your bet is going to cost you one way or another? That's the feeling I get about Grassy.
It's something my friends and I call "horse intuition." Sometimes it's good horse intuition, sometimes it's bad horse intuition. I'll write about it in detail someday, but for now, all you need to know is that I'm getting some bad horse intuition from Grassy.
He's bred to go long and his pedigree says turf all the way. In fact, his pedigree suggests a good to yielding turf course would be ideal.
Grassy had some success in 2011, winning a few Graded races out at Belmont and Aqueduct. In 2012, Grassy has been lightly raced, only running twice thus far. He closed a bit in each effort, but lacked the form that brought him success in 2011.
My take: His name is Grassy and he's going to screw me, at least that's what my horse intuition is saying. Back to logical, fact based thought: I'm not using him on my tickets. He's off form, unproven on dirt, and if I'm not playing Fame and Glory, I'm not playing Grassy. Case closed.
Jaycito: Sire - Victory Gallop (Cryptoclearance) Dam - Night Edition (Ascot Knight)
Jaycito, now a 4YO colt, flashed some potential back in 2010 as a 2YO, winning the Grade I Norfolk at Hollywood Park. After that impressive performance, he was entered in the Grade I Breeder's Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs and went off as the 5-1 third choice. The problem was, Jaycito wanted no part of the terror train that was Uncle Mo as a 2YO. Jaycito finished 7th, 16 lengths back, and has been trying to find his way ever since.
He's run back and forth between dirt and synthetics, trying Graded company here and there. He's been steadily mediocre over this time and a big performance at a jump up in distance would be a big surprise.
My take: Remember when I said take notice if a horse is trained by Bob Baffert? You can go ahead and ignore that, just this once. Jaycito is not going to want any part of the Marathon distance, 1 1/8 miles is probably his limit if he's trying to run a competitive race. I'm hoping Jaycito's connections will cause him to take some money at the windows, I don't think he's got any chance. If Jaycito wins, this might truly be Beast Mode's (Baffert) Breeder's Cup. Or, perhaps I just old school Sprite commercialed this race:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ptyA9nyKes
Juniper Pass: Sire - Lemon Drop Kid (Kingmambo) Dam - Child Bride (Coronado's Quest)
This 5YO gelding has one win on the Santa Anita dirt to his name. It was his first dirt try and was back in March 2011, over a sloppy track, going 1 1/2 miles. After that, he ran in a string of turf races, before finally trying dirt again his last two out. In his first attempt back on dirt, he ran a well beaten 3rd going 1 1/8 miles on the Fairplex dirt course. His most recent attempt was also at 1 1/8 miles, this time at Fresno where he finished a narrow 2nd.
Juniper Pass has some decent performances from 1 1/2 miles to 1 3/4 miles. Is it enough to say he'll relish the BC Marathon distance? No, but it means he's got a better chance than some in here.
He hasn't appeared to thrive on fast dirt, but he also hasn't flopped on it.
My take: Twix bars and question marks abound. Like I said, I'd give him a better shot than about half of the horses in here. But, I'm not sure I consider him a win contender. Not on my tickets.
If you've gotten this far, you deserve a break from reading about the Breeder's Cup Marathon. Divert your attention accordingly, here's one option: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0
Did you see the horses in there? That's, loosely, a horse related music video.
Not Abroad: Sire - Not for Love (Mr. Prospector) Dam - Timely Broad (Broad Brush)
This 5YO stallion has been a model of consistency over the past 2 years. In 2012, he's hit the board in 4 out of 5 tries, including 2 wins, 2 places, and a show.
Form and surface are not question marks, stamina will determine this horses success. Not Abroad has showed success up to 1 1/2 miles, but we're talking about 2 more furlongs here. 2 furlongs might not seem like much, but it is. Uncle Mo at 1 mile to 1 1/6 miles: stud. Uncle Mo at 1 1/4 miles: ehhhhhhh.
My take: I'm doing it, I'm putting him on my tickets. His form is better than anyone's and that means a lot in this field. After I wrote that last sentence, I immediately thought about Eldaafer. Am I not giving him enough credit? Boy, this Marathon is what I like to call a poop shoot riot. Onward we go.
Rewind: I'm probably going to cause you to look it up by mentioning it, but I have to mention it in case you look it up on your own. By poop shoot riot, I do not mean the definition that pops up on urban dictionary. I don't mean anything by it, other than to describe a difficult to disastrous situation. That is all.
Quail Hill: Sire - Candy Ride *ARG (Ride the Rails) Dam - Midwife (Family Calling)
Quail Hill is on the also eligible list, if he ends up getting in I'll take a closer look at him. The fact that I can fly right over him actually makes him my favorite horse in this race. Go Quail Hill.
Romp (Arg): Sire - Incurable Optimist (Cure the Blues) Dam - Stormy Secret *Arg (Hidden Prize)
Right when you think this 8YO gelding's best days are behind him, he reels off a couple decent turf efforts ranging from 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/2 miles. Even so, his dirt form leaves a lot to be desired and he's been beaten on a few occasions by Junipers Pass, Worth Repeating, Eldaafer, and Balladry.
My take: No can do here. I was intrigued to see what he could do back in the 2010 Breeders Cup Marathon, unfortunately he clipped heels early and was a non factor. I think he's a little better on dirt than he seems, but he's still a play against.
Sense of Purpose: Sire - Galileo *Ire (Sadler's Well) Dam - Super Gift *Ire (Darshaan)
5YO mare is similar to Fame and Glory in the sense that she's bred well, likes to go long, is trying dirt for the first time, and appears to be off form.
Fame and Glory is a classier horse, so I'd be more inclined to look towards him if I'm banking on a European horse to run a winning race.
My take: Again, I'm just not seeing it. This mare has raced only 3 times this year with her worst performance coming last out in early September. If there was some form here, I'd be very interested. Sense of Purpose is bread to LOVE this distance, especially with the Darshaan influence on the bottom. But, alas, she will be off my tickets.
Worth Repeating: Sire - Giant's Causeway (Storm Cat) Dam - Lady Nichola (AP Indy)
I have to admit, as I started writing this preview, I was convinced I'd be taking a firm stand against Worth Repeating. After going through this entire list of entries, there is absolutely no way I can keep this horse off of my tickets.
This 6YO stallion is a real race horse. He's running in good races and he's running well. He still likes racing. He's fine with the turf, dirt, or synthetics. He's been good up to 1 1/2 miles. I don't like making him run the extra 2 furlongs, but sweet baby Jesus, at least it looks like he'll give it an honest effort.
As recently as June 2012, Worth Repeating has been holding his own against the likes of Richard's Kid, Rail Trip, Casino Host, and Dhaamer. Those horses are by no means world beaters, but they're also real life race horses.
My take: At first, I was wary that he backed up a bit towards the end of his 1 3/8m race and his 1 1/2m race (his July and August races). But then, I didn't care. I'm sticking with my 9YO Argentinian fire cracker as my top choice, but Worth Repeating is undoubtedly better than most here. He'll be on my tickets.
Summary:
I like them in this order, all 4 will be on my Pick 3 tickets. I'll pare down as needed on any other multi-race wagers.
Calidoscopio
Worth Repeating
Not Abroad
Eldaafer
I might never eat a Twix bar again.
Happy horzing.
I'm going to sum it all up with one statement, ready?
They are all Twix bars.
And there you have it, good luck with this second Breeder's Cup race on the Friday card!
I suppose I owe some semblance of an explanation. Then, perhaps, I'll run through the horses as well. We'll see.
Back to the Twix bar, watch this clip:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72gsdsL26po&feature=relmfu
Seinfeld is such a treat, all the time, every time. I legitimately just wasted half an hour watching other Seinfeld clips, despite the fact that it took me all but 30 seconds to find the one I was looking for.
Twix Bar.
The Marathon is just a big candy lineup and the Breeder's Cup just laughs at anyone who tries to decipher which candy bar is which. Why? Because they are all Twix bars!!!!!!!
None of these horses belong in this race. In that sense, they are all the same.
Either they are horses who have run the distance and have never tried the dirt, or they are horses who have run on dirt but have never tried the distance.
So, we've got all these horses with the most basic questions marks you can think of when handicapping. Distance? Surface?
Pick your favorite candy bar in the world, the one you know and love the best. You know the taste. You know the smell. You know the texture. You know how exactly how it reacts in different climates. You've gotten to know each other so well that it recently invited you to join it's book club.
Now find your candy bar in this Breeder's Cup candy lineup.
You can't, it's a setup.
Even if you come back after the race is run and tell me that you did it, you found your Snickers bar in the candy lineup and it paid $18.00, I'll still tell you that you were wrong.
You didn't find your Snickers bar, not in this race. You simply picked the right Twix bar.
Breeder's Cup Marathon
Post time: 1:48pm Pacific Time Distance: 1 3/4 Miles (14F) Surface: Dirt
Almundena (Per) Sire- Silver Planet *Arg (Fitzcarraldo *Arg) Dam - Fire Legend *Arg (Engrillado *Arg)
This 5YO mare had a pretty successful 2011 campaign in Peru with four 1st place finishes and three 2nd place finishes. One of those wins came in Group II company while one of the place performances came against Group I company. On the downside, all of those race were on turf and the furthest of those races was 1 1/2 miles.
Almundena hasn't been nearly as consistent on dirt as she has on turf. In the past 2 years, she's only got one in the money performance on dirt; a 2nd place effort at 1 1/4 miles in Group I company in Argentina.
It's hard to gauge Almundena's form for the Marathon as she hasn't run since May 25 of this year.
My take: This is going to be a theme, there are just too many questions marks here to back this horse. Although she's apparently been full of run at the end of a few 1 1/2 mile races, that doesn't mean she'll like 1 3/4 miles. That, combined with the layoff and lack of dirt form make her a toss for me.
NOTE: I'll only be using this race in multi-race wagers, not a chance I try and tackle the exacta, trifecta, or superfecta.
Antigun: Sire - Istan (Gone West) Dam - Rimini Road (Dynaformer)
You might remember seeing this 3YO colt in a couple of Derby preps (G II Rebel, G I Arkansas), a Triple Crown race (G I Belmont), a couple big summer races for 3YO's (G II Jim Dandy, G I Travers), or taking on older horses in the Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup.
Wow! Classy horse, done deal, sign me up.
Not so fast. Antigun, while having been placed in top caliber races, is not a top caliber horse. His efforts in each of the races above left a lot to be desired. He finished 11th by 9+ in the Rebel, 5th by 11+ in the Arkansas, 6th by 7 in the Jim Dandy, 4th by 1+ in the Travers, and 4th by 7+ in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. His shining moment thus far came in the Belmont where he finished 3rd, 2 back from the winner, Union Rags.
Antigun definitely is in need of a little class relief and the Marathon will certainly provide that.
So then the question becomes, can he handle the surface and distance?
Dirt should not be a problem, that's the surface he's meant to run on. Distance, however, could be an issue.
Many will point to his solid effort in the Belmont and automatically assume that the more distance the better for Antigun. And yes, he does get some stamina from his damsire, Dynaformer. But, I'm far from convinced. Progeny of Atigun's sire, Gone West, typically don't like to go much more than a mile. Stretching out to take a stab in the Belmont is one thing, stretching out even further to try 1 3/4 miles is another.
My take: While this will be the easiest bunch he's run against in a while, I think the distance will be too much to overcome. Maybe he can grab a piece of the exotics, but he's not on my list of potential winners and will likely be over bet.
Balladry: Sire - Unbridled's Song (Unbridled) Dam - Storm Song (Summer Squall)
A 4YO colt who's best effort in 2012 came in a 50k Allowance race at 1 1/6 mile on the synthetic track at Hollywood.
Obviously there's a lot more I could say, but the above sentence really sums things up for me.
Balladry's not bred to go long, was backing up at the end of his two tries at longer distances (1 1/2 miles and 1 3/8 miles), and appears to prefer synthetics to dirt.
My take: I'm going to go ahead and let the Good News Korean Dance Corp give you my take on Balladry's chances in the Marathon, enjoy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RajXWNTULBA
If you don't click on the link, you're missing out. However, her are a few of the lyrics to the song that they dance to courtesy of Atomic Kitten:
So, Balladry, see ya
All right (oh, yeah)
I wouldn't wanna be ya tonight
Let me make it clear, all right
You're not the one for me, yeah
Yeah, yeah, yeah
Calidoscopio (Arg): Sire - Luhuk (Forty Niner) Dam - Calderona *Arg (Lefty)
This a straight up, 9YO horse. This stallion's been around the block. For some reason when I saw "B. h. 9" in the PP's, the first thing I thought of was this: http://www.hark.com/clips/dwxzwqnhfy-im-a-man-im-40
Look up Mike Gundy on youtube if you want to see the whole thing, it's about 3:30 minutes long.
If Calidoscopio could speak English:
"I'm Calidoscopio, I'm a man, I'm 9! I'm not a colt, I've got whole page of PP's all to myself, come after me!"
On to his chances in the Marathon. He's going to be a price, and I like him.
He's got 2 wins in 3 starts in 2012, the first by 3/4 of a length at 1 1/2 on dirt in Argentina, the second by 2 lengths at 1 9/16 miles in a Group 2 race on dirt in Argentina.
He'll be coming off of a 4 month layoff, which I don't love. But, the PP's are showing American works dating back to September which means he's getting ready for this.
My take: He's bred to go long, he's proven he can go long, and he's proven on the dirt. Yes, he's 9 and will be making his first start in America. Like I said, I'll only be betting this race as a part of multi-race wagers. But, if you wanted my top choice, this 9YO is it. He'll be on my ticket and I'm guessing we'll get at least 20-1 on him.
Commander: Sire - Broken Vow (Unbridled) Dam - Pout (Deputy Minister)
4YO colt enters the Marathon on a 6 race winning streak where his average margin of victory has been about 4 1/2 lengths.
My favorite baseball team, the Chicago Cubs played 162 games this year. Not once, did they manage to put together a 6 game winning streak. Commander has raced 9 times in 2012. It took Commander 9 races to do what the Cubs couldn't in 162 games. This is the life of a Cubs fan. I remain optimistic that Theo will turn it around though, celebration monster (see the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Preview) will make an appearance someday.
Commander will be the unquestioned speed in this race, he fires to the lead every time. The question will be, can he hang on for 1 3/4 mile? When stretched out to 1 3/8 mile last out he won a Grade III race, but his margin of victory (a head) paled in comparison to his dominating efforts at 1 mile and 1 1/16 miles. Was it the distance or the hike in class that made him work? Probably a combination of both.
My take: If you bet on Commander, you're pretty much guaranteed to have a exciting viewing experience. This horse is going to lead this group as far as he can, I just don't think he can quite lead them for the full 1 3/4 miles. The hard and fast track at Santa Anita should help his cause, but I'll be taking a somewhat reluctant stand against this horse.
Eldaafer: Sire - AP Indy (Seattle Slew) Dam - Habibti (Tabasco Cat)
This 7YO gelding just keeps chugging along, this will be his 4th consecutive Breeder's Cup Marathon. He won the Marathon at Churchill in 2010 and had forgettable performances in 2009 and 2011.
If history is any indication, Eldaafer's performance in the Marathon will be directly tied to his recent form. When he got blown away in the 2009 Marathon, he was coming off a 20 length loss in the Hawthorne Gold Cup. When he won in 2010, he was coming off a victory in the Grade III Turf Paradise Fall Challenge. When he lost last years 2011 Marathon by 17, he had finished 2nd in a 84k stakes race 2 months prior.
Eldaafer's last two races have been his best in awhile. He enters this Marathon off a 3rd place performance in the Grade III Hawthorne Gold Cup, a race that earned him a 99 Beyer.
My take: Even though he's got some wins at 1 1/2 miles and a win in the 2010 Marathon, I think 1 3/4 miles is too much for him. He's proven he can be there at the end, the surface won't be an issue, but I have to imagine there's someone in this full field that will reach the finish line first. There are 3 others that I like ahead of him, but Eldaafer will round out my top 4 and be on any Pick 3 ticket I play.
Fame and Glory: Montjeu *Ire (Sadler's Well) Dam - Gryada *GB (Shirely Heights *GB)
This 6YO stallion is bred like a champ. Montjeu proved himself to be a spectacular sire before his untimely passing this year and Sadler's Well is one of Europe's all time great sires, if not the best ever.
His pedigree points to stamina as a huge strength and it shows in his 14 wins out of 25 starts, some all the way up to 2 1/2 miles in distance. His best days may, however, may be behind him as he hasn't hit the board in any of his 3 attempts against Group company in 2012.
The biggest question with this classy stallion will be the switch from turf to dirt. There's really no way of knowing how Fame and Glory will react to the Santa Anita dirt course. However, he is in the hands of world class trainer, Aidan O'Brien.
My take: Fame and Glory will mostly likely go off at double digit odds to win this race. The combination of his stamina and the fact that Aidan O'Brien is his trainer makes me want to take a shot on this horse. But, I'm going to hold off. The only reason he's here is because he's off form in Europe and his connections think he can simply outclass this field. They may be right, but I'll be looking elsewhere.
Grassy: Sire - El Prado *IRE (Sadler's Well) Dam - High Savannah *GB (Rousillon)
Grassy is a 6YO stallion. Grassy has 19 career starts. All of Grassy's starts have been on the grass.
Do you ever get the feeling that a horse is going to beat you? You know, the feeling that a horses inclusion or exclusion from your bet is going to cost you one way or another? That's the feeling I get about Grassy.
It's something my friends and I call "horse intuition." Sometimes it's good horse intuition, sometimes it's bad horse intuition. I'll write about it in detail someday, but for now, all you need to know is that I'm getting some bad horse intuition from Grassy.
He's bred to go long and his pedigree says turf all the way. In fact, his pedigree suggests a good to yielding turf course would be ideal.
Grassy had some success in 2011, winning a few Graded races out at Belmont and Aqueduct. In 2012, Grassy has been lightly raced, only running twice thus far. He closed a bit in each effort, but lacked the form that brought him success in 2011.
My take: His name is Grassy and he's going to screw me, at least that's what my horse intuition is saying. Back to logical, fact based thought: I'm not using him on my tickets. He's off form, unproven on dirt, and if I'm not playing Fame and Glory, I'm not playing Grassy. Case closed.
Jaycito: Sire - Victory Gallop (Cryptoclearance) Dam - Night Edition (Ascot Knight)
Jaycito, now a 4YO colt, flashed some potential back in 2010 as a 2YO, winning the Grade I Norfolk at Hollywood Park. After that impressive performance, he was entered in the Grade I Breeder's Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs and went off as the 5-1 third choice. The problem was, Jaycito wanted no part of the terror train that was Uncle Mo as a 2YO. Jaycito finished 7th, 16 lengths back, and has been trying to find his way ever since.
He's run back and forth between dirt and synthetics, trying Graded company here and there. He's been steadily mediocre over this time and a big performance at a jump up in distance would be a big surprise.
My take: Remember when I said take notice if a horse is trained by Bob Baffert? You can go ahead and ignore that, just this once. Jaycito is not going to want any part of the Marathon distance, 1 1/8 miles is probably his limit if he's trying to run a competitive race. I'm hoping Jaycito's connections will cause him to take some money at the windows, I don't think he's got any chance. If Jaycito wins, this might truly be Beast Mode's (Baffert) Breeder's Cup. Or, perhaps I just old school Sprite commercialed this race:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ptyA9nyKes
Juniper Pass: Sire - Lemon Drop Kid (Kingmambo) Dam - Child Bride (Coronado's Quest)
This 5YO gelding has one win on the Santa Anita dirt to his name. It was his first dirt try and was back in March 2011, over a sloppy track, going 1 1/2 miles. After that, he ran in a string of turf races, before finally trying dirt again his last two out. In his first attempt back on dirt, he ran a well beaten 3rd going 1 1/8 miles on the Fairplex dirt course. His most recent attempt was also at 1 1/8 miles, this time at Fresno where he finished a narrow 2nd.
Juniper Pass has some decent performances from 1 1/2 miles to 1 3/4 miles. Is it enough to say he'll relish the BC Marathon distance? No, but it means he's got a better chance than some in here.
He hasn't appeared to thrive on fast dirt, but he also hasn't flopped on it.
My take: Twix bars and question marks abound. Like I said, I'd give him a better shot than about half of the horses in here. But, I'm not sure I consider him a win contender. Not on my tickets.
If you've gotten this far, you deserve a break from reading about the Breeder's Cup Marathon. Divert your attention accordingly, here's one option: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0
Did you see the horses in there? That's, loosely, a horse related music video.
Not Abroad: Sire - Not for Love (Mr. Prospector) Dam - Timely Broad (Broad Brush)
This 5YO stallion has been a model of consistency over the past 2 years. In 2012, he's hit the board in 4 out of 5 tries, including 2 wins, 2 places, and a show.
Form and surface are not question marks, stamina will determine this horses success. Not Abroad has showed success up to 1 1/2 miles, but we're talking about 2 more furlongs here. 2 furlongs might not seem like much, but it is. Uncle Mo at 1 mile to 1 1/6 miles: stud. Uncle Mo at 1 1/4 miles: ehhhhhhh.
My take: I'm doing it, I'm putting him on my tickets. His form is better than anyone's and that means a lot in this field. After I wrote that last sentence, I immediately thought about Eldaafer. Am I not giving him enough credit? Boy, this Marathon is what I like to call a poop shoot riot. Onward we go.
Rewind: I'm probably going to cause you to look it up by mentioning it, but I have to mention it in case you look it up on your own. By poop shoot riot, I do not mean the definition that pops up on urban dictionary. I don't mean anything by it, other than to describe a difficult to disastrous situation. That is all.
Quail Hill: Sire - Candy Ride *ARG (Ride the Rails) Dam - Midwife (Family Calling)
Quail Hill is on the also eligible list, if he ends up getting in I'll take a closer look at him. The fact that I can fly right over him actually makes him my favorite horse in this race. Go Quail Hill.
Romp (Arg): Sire - Incurable Optimist (Cure the Blues) Dam - Stormy Secret *Arg (Hidden Prize)
Right when you think this 8YO gelding's best days are behind him, he reels off a couple decent turf efforts ranging from 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/2 miles. Even so, his dirt form leaves a lot to be desired and he's been beaten on a few occasions by Junipers Pass, Worth Repeating, Eldaafer, and Balladry.
My take: No can do here. I was intrigued to see what he could do back in the 2010 Breeders Cup Marathon, unfortunately he clipped heels early and was a non factor. I think he's a little better on dirt than he seems, but he's still a play against.
Sense of Purpose: Sire - Galileo *Ire (Sadler's Well) Dam - Super Gift *Ire (Darshaan)
5YO mare is similar to Fame and Glory in the sense that she's bred well, likes to go long, is trying dirt for the first time, and appears to be off form.
Fame and Glory is a classier horse, so I'd be more inclined to look towards him if I'm banking on a European horse to run a winning race.
My take: Again, I'm just not seeing it. This mare has raced only 3 times this year with her worst performance coming last out in early September. If there was some form here, I'd be very interested. Sense of Purpose is bread to LOVE this distance, especially with the Darshaan influence on the bottom. But, alas, she will be off my tickets.
Worth Repeating: Sire - Giant's Causeway (Storm Cat) Dam - Lady Nichola (AP Indy)
I have to admit, as I started writing this preview, I was convinced I'd be taking a firm stand against Worth Repeating. After going through this entire list of entries, there is absolutely no way I can keep this horse off of my tickets.
This 6YO stallion is a real race horse. He's running in good races and he's running well. He still likes racing. He's fine with the turf, dirt, or synthetics. He's been good up to 1 1/2 miles. I don't like making him run the extra 2 furlongs, but sweet baby Jesus, at least it looks like he'll give it an honest effort.
As recently as June 2012, Worth Repeating has been holding his own against the likes of Richard's Kid, Rail Trip, Casino Host, and Dhaamer. Those horses are by no means world beaters, but they're also real life race horses.
My take: At first, I was wary that he backed up a bit towards the end of his 1 3/8m race and his 1 1/2m race (his July and August races). But then, I didn't care. I'm sticking with my 9YO Argentinian fire cracker as my top choice, but Worth Repeating is undoubtedly better than most here. He'll be on my tickets.
Summary:
I like them in this order, all 4 will be on my Pick 3 tickets. I'll pare down as needed on any other multi-race wagers.
Calidoscopio
Worth Repeating
Not Abroad
Eldaafer
I might never eat a Twix bar again.
Happy horzing.
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Breeder's Cup Juvenile Sprint Preview
I love the Triple Crown Trail, but the Breeder's Cup is my favorite horse racing event. With that said, Breeder's Cup pre-entries were announced today. Me gusta mucho.
While the field's and post positions won't be locked in until Monday 10/29/12, we now have a solid handle on where all of the contenders will be running.
Let the horzing begin!
Scratches can occur, some horses have been cross entered in other races, jockey assignments aren't all set, weird stuff can happen, post positions matter, I love enchiladas de mole, a possum and opossum are two different creatures. Knowing all that, let's remember that this is a fluid process, things can change.
I'm going to begin my horzing with the first scheduled BC race, the Juvenile Sprint. The JV Sprint is scheduled to be run on Friday, 11/2/12 at 1:06 Pacific Time. Distance: 6F Surface: Dirt
Note: Horses will be listed in alphabetical orders. As previously mentioned, we won't know post positions until Monday 10/29/12.
The field:
Almost an Angel: Sire - Artie Schiller (El Prado) Dam - Earthly Angel (Crafty Prospector)
This filly will be trying dirt for the first time, having previously run on both turf and synthetics. At first glance, there's not a lot to love here. Almost an Angel broke her maiden back in June, going 6F on the Belmont Turf. She proceeded to try her hand against graded competition in the Grade II With Anticipation on turf at Saratogta and the Grade I Alcibiades on synthetics at Keenland. Both races were run at 1 mile and 1/16th. On a scale of Awful-Not Good, things went "Not Good." She finished 7th in the With Anticipation, 5 and 3/4 lengths back, and finished 6th in the Alcibiades, 6 and 1/2 lengths back.
Her pedigree suggests somewhere between 8F and 10F would be her ideal distance, so this seems like strange spot. On a positive note, Wesley Ward is solid with 2YO horses, maybe he can work some magic.
My take: Not today, not tomorrow, and not on Friday 11/2. This filly will not be a part of any ticket I play.
Note: Has the Juvenile Fillies listed as her second choice.
Beholder: Sire - Henny Hughes (Hennessy) Dam - Leslie's Lady (Tricky Creek)
Ricky Bobby fast. Faster than that Jimmy John's delivery guy fast. That's right Jimmy John's, Beholder is faster than freaky fast; she would deliver a sandwich faster than your best delivery person.
This filly broke her maiden in July at Del Mar going 5 1/2F on synthetics. She proceeded to take on Executiveprivilege, going 7F in the Grade I Debutante at Del Mar. After setting early fractions of 22 and 2, 45 and 1, and 1:10, she was nosed by Executiveprivilege at the wire.
She came back in a 6F, 50K Allowance race at Santa Anita in early October and blew the field away by 11. That frisky performance earned her a 108 Beyer and will undoubtedly make her the favorite in this race.
My take: Breeder's Cup day is full of surprises, but I don't think this will be one of them. Beholder will be a short price and should have her way up front. She should be a nice single to start off any multi-race wagers, especially with the unpredictable Marathon next on the card. If you can beat her though, you'll get paid. I might try with a horse further down this list, but Beholder should win.
Note: Has the Juvenile Fillies listed as her second choice.
Ceiling Kitty (GB): Sire - Red Clubs *Ire (Red Rocks) Dam - Baldovina *GB (Tale of the Cat)
Well, she's got the best name thus far as we work our way down in alphabetical order.
Scenario:
You're coming home from the store. You got a new, cute, little kitten just the other day. You fully expect it to be waiting for you at the front door, meowing softly and looking adorable. You reach the front door and are ready to shower your little kitten with love. You open the front door. Your kitten is on the ceiling. What the @#$#?!?!?! Your kitten is on the ceiling. It is above you. It is defying gravity. It is...CEILING KITTY.
That would be both absurd and awesome. I'm not sure how I would react. I look forward to the day when I can find out.
Horses. Breeder's Cup. Refocus.
Ceiling Kitty, the horse version. This half sister to Juvenile Fillies Turf prospect, Sky Lantern, broke her maiden in May, going 5F on the synthetic surface at Kempton in 1:00 and change. She went on to surprise at 20-1 in her next two tries at 5F on turf. She won a Listed race at York (May) by 2 lengths, narrowly missing the course record. She then went on to win a Group II race at Ascot (June) by 1 length. Since then, she been seen finishing 4th in a Group II race at Doncaster and 7th in a Group I race at Newmarket.
She'll be trying dirt for the first time and any Breeder's Cup race is a tough spot for that kind of move. Her connections may just be taking a shot in the dark, but perhaps they see something here. Her sire, Red Clubs, was a successful sprinter. Although, her pedigree suggests she could stretch out a bit. Either way, everything points towards turf as her preferred surface.
Interestingly, she has more wins (3) than any other horse in this field (assuming Kauai Kate races in the Juvenile Fillies).
My take: I'll be keeping an eye out for any news on this filly as we approach the Breeder's Cup. She's got a tall task ahead and may be over matched. If I hear or see anything positive about Ceiling Kitty, there's a chance I would include her at the bottom of my exotics in the hopes of spicing things up with a big price.
Hazardous: Sire - Candy Ride *ARG (Ride the Rails) Dam - Malley Girl (Malek *Chi)
This 2YO gelding broke his maiden by 5 lengths, going 5F in a 12.5 Maiden Claimer on the synthetic surface at Golden Gate. He was then claimed in a 16K Claiming race at Golden Gate where he finished 4th after losing interest early on.
Hazardous won his first start off the claim in a 22.5 Claimer going 6F on the dirt at Santa Anita (October 14th). He won without doubt, finishing 13+ lengths ahead of his nearest competitor.
My take: Hazardous showed some talent and a liking for the Santa Anita dirt track winning last out, I guess that was enough for the connections to pony up the BC entry fee. While this horse has been making steady progress up the claiming ladder, I simply cannot support a jump from a 22.5 Claimer to a Breeder's Cup race. Not on my tickets.
Hightail: Sire - Mineshaft (AP Indy) Dam - Stormy Renee (Storm Cat)
Hightail is a 2YO colt that is 0 for his life. Not that this needs any more explanation, but for further perspective, consider the following: Alex Rodriguez batted .120 this postseason, he was 3 for 25. Horrendous, right? He practically got booed out of New York. Hightail's batting average is .000.
Now that I've given this colt the ARod treatment, let me say that he hasn't run horribly in his 8 attempts. He's been aggressively placed in one Grade III, two Grade II's, and one Grade I. He's also come close to winning a few Maiden Special Weights finishing 2nd by a head, 3rd by 4+ lenghts, and 3rd by 1+ lengths. His 6th place effort last out in the Grade I Breeders Futurity at Keenland was admirable.
I'm not sure what D. Wayne Lukas is doing with Hightail. I'm not sure what D. Wayne Lukas is doing in general these days as the placement of his horses is often confounding. Hightail might be a decent horse, but he's been over his head time and time again. Sounds like the perfect time to go from routing to sprinting and enter him in a Breeder's Cup Race. That last sentence was a lie, I'm sorry I lied to you.
My take: The following makes more sense than Hightail in the BC and is also hilarious:
Lloyd: That's a lovely accent you have. New Jersey?
Lady at bus stop: Austria.
Lloyd: Austria! Well, then. G'day mate! Let's put another shrimp on the barbie!
Lady at bus stop: Let's not.
Dumb and Dumber never fails to make me laugh. There always a scenario where a horse can pick up the pieces for 3rd, maybe Hightail can do that. He'll be off my tickets though as I think we're more likely to see Hightail giving his number to a filly in the stands around post time than hitting the board.
Kauai Kate: Sire - Malibu Moon (AP Indy) Dam - More Than Pretty (More Than Ready)
I'm putting her on the list, but am not going to write much about her. She's cross entered in the Juvenile Fillies and has that race as her first choice. If, for some reason, she ends up here, I'll revisit this post.
Quick note: I really laid into Hightail back there, sorry Hightail. I still don't think he'll hit the board, but the connections of Hazardous might be more deserving of the Dumb and Dumber scolding. There's nothing I can do about the ARod comparison though, the horse is actually batting .000. I think there's something about D. Wayne Lukas that loads my burrito with habanero sauce from hell. Perhaps it's his hat. I like funny and unnecessary hats though, so that can't be it...
Merit Man: Sire - With Distinction (Storm Cat) Dam - Precise Strike (Precise End)
As I followed the news regarding potential starters for this race, I had a vision. It was perfect. Dreamy. Perhaps divine. It was a cold beer after a tough day at work. It was the relief of a rest stop after downing a big gulp during a long road trip. It was the celebration that ensued after the Cubs won the World Series.
Actually, it wasn't the celebration post Cubs World Series. That's going to be a blur. I will transform from human to celebration monster when that happens. You only want to be with celebration monster if you're also a celebration monster. Humans will look poorly upon the celebration monster. Celebration monster will not care, the Cubs will have just won the World Series.
So, it was the relief of a rest stop after downing a big gulp during a long road trip...
It was Beholder and Kauai Kate blazing and battling on the front end of the Juvenile Sprint. Two fast fillies, out to prove which was fastest. However, occupied by their battle for speed supremacy, they went too fast.
As they made the turn for home, there was a horse named Merit Man sitting a couple lengths back. Merit Man didn't care about wiring the field. The only thing Merit Man cared about was winning. He had done it twice already; once going 5 1/2 furlongs on synthetics at Del Mar and once going 6F on the dirt at Santa Anita. He won the first by 3/4 and the second by 5 1/2 lengths. His performance at Santa Anita was impressive enough to earn him a 92 Beyer.
As Beholder and Kauai Kate tired, Merit Man pounced. He won the Juvenile Sprint by 2 lengths and proved himself a 2YO to be reckoned with.
Now, if only this dream could become a reality...
My take: Kauai Kate probably won't be in this race. Beholder will fly alone on the front end and Merit Man won't be able to run her down. I still like Merit Man enough to use him in any multi-race wagers though. Maybe I'll try and beat Beholder in some exotics with Merit Man on top as well, we'll see...
South Floyd: Sire - Any Given Saturday (Distorted Humor) Dam - Major Wager (Valid Wager)
2YO colt broke his maiden in late September on the Fairplex dirt course, going 6F on the front end and winning by 4. He next raced on October 6th at Santa Anita in the 100k Tim Conway Stakes on dirt and came in second, 5+ lengths behind the winner, Merit Man.
My take: South Floyd appears to be a decent colt who can flash some speed and win in the right spot. However, I don't think this is the right spot. He might take some money because of the Doug O'Neil - I'll Have Another effect, but I'm not too interested. The bottom line is he's slower than Beholder and already has proven to be 5 lengths short of Merit Man. He won't be on my muti-race wagers and will, at best, be filling out my 3rd spot with a few others in a trifecta.
Super Ninety Nine: Sire - Pulpit (AP Indy) Dam - Exogenetic (Unbridled's Song)
This 2YO colt was a nice winner in his only start thus far. He won a Maiden Special Weight going 7F on the Santa Anita dirt by sitting just off the leader before pulling away at the turn to win by 1 1/4 lengths. Scaling back to 6F for the Juvenile Sprint shouldn't be an issue
Bob Baffert.
Whenever you see that name this Breeder's Cup weekend, take notice.
If you're an NFL fan, you might remember the following highlight:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBHk9rc4hHc&noredirect=1
For all intensive purposes, that was the day Beast Mode was born.
When it comes to Santa Anita, Bob Baffert is Beast Mode.
Beast Mode trains Super Ninety Nine, that's enough for me to be wary.
My take: I think he's a notch below Beholder and Merit Man, but I'll likely include him in any multi-race wagers as he's better than the rest and trained by Beast Mode. If I can afford it, I'll add a Baffert horse to a ticket whenever and wherever possible. "If I can afford it," is the key part of that last sentence.
Sweet Shirley Mae: Sire - Broken Vow (Unbridled) Dam - Joyful Chaos (Rahy)
2YO broke her maiden at 5F on a sloppy Belmont track back in May. She's tried 2 races since: the Grade III Schuylerville Stakes at 6F on the Saratoga dirt and the Grade I Spinaway at 7F, also on the Saratoga dirt.
In the Schuylerville, she stalked the pace only to fade to 5th, 8 lengths from the winner.
She put in a much better effort in the Spinaway, closing from 9 back to finish 2nd, 2+ lengths away from the winner.
Sweet Shirley Mae hasn't had any "wow" moments at this point in her career. She did beat the talented Bern Identity while breaking her maiden. However, as previously mentioned, that was over a sloppy track and has to be discounted to an extent.
She has been working well, most recently firing a 5F bullet (1:00 and 4) on October 21st at Churchill.
My take: I think she's got the best shot of the two Wesley Ward trainees (Almost an Angel is the other), but ultimately is in too deep. She a contender to fill out the trifecta, a shot at routing might best suit her future interests.
And that rounds out the field for the Juvenile Sprint.
I'm dreading the Marathon, it's packed and impossible. I'm going to give it a go though and will hopefully have that preview up sometime tomorrow.
Happy horzing.
While the field's and post positions won't be locked in until Monday 10/29/12, we now have a solid handle on where all of the contenders will be running.
Let the horzing begin!
Scratches can occur, some horses have been cross entered in other races, jockey assignments aren't all set, weird stuff can happen, post positions matter, I love enchiladas de mole, a possum and opossum are two different creatures. Knowing all that, let's remember that this is a fluid process, things can change.
I'm going to begin my horzing with the first scheduled BC race, the Juvenile Sprint. The JV Sprint is scheduled to be run on Friday, 11/2/12 at 1:06 Pacific Time. Distance: 6F Surface: Dirt
Note: Horses will be listed in alphabetical orders. As previously mentioned, we won't know post positions until Monday 10/29/12.
The field:
Almost an Angel: Sire - Artie Schiller (El Prado) Dam - Earthly Angel (Crafty Prospector)
This filly will be trying dirt for the first time, having previously run on both turf and synthetics. At first glance, there's not a lot to love here. Almost an Angel broke her maiden back in June, going 6F on the Belmont Turf. She proceeded to try her hand against graded competition in the Grade II With Anticipation on turf at Saratogta and the Grade I Alcibiades on synthetics at Keenland. Both races were run at 1 mile and 1/16th. On a scale of Awful-Not Good, things went "Not Good." She finished 7th in the With Anticipation, 5 and 3/4 lengths back, and finished 6th in the Alcibiades, 6 and 1/2 lengths back.
Her pedigree suggests somewhere between 8F and 10F would be her ideal distance, so this seems like strange spot. On a positive note, Wesley Ward is solid with 2YO horses, maybe he can work some magic.
My take: Not today, not tomorrow, and not on Friday 11/2. This filly will not be a part of any ticket I play.
Note: Has the Juvenile Fillies listed as her second choice.
Beholder: Sire - Henny Hughes (Hennessy) Dam - Leslie's Lady (Tricky Creek)
Ricky Bobby fast. Faster than that Jimmy John's delivery guy fast. That's right Jimmy John's, Beholder is faster than freaky fast; she would deliver a sandwich faster than your best delivery person.
This filly broke her maiden in July at Del Mar going 5 1/2F on synthetics. She proceeded to take on Executiveprivilege, going 7F in the Grade I Debutante at Del Mar. After setting early fractions of 22 and 2, 45 and 1, and 1:10, she was nosed by Executiveprivilege at the wire.
She came back in a 6F, 50K Allowance race at Santa Anita in early October and blew the field away by 11. That frisky performance earned her a 108 Beyer and will undoubtedly make her the favorite in this race.
My take: Breeder's Cup day is full of surprises, but I don't think this will be one of them. Beholder will be a short price and should have her way up front. She should be a nice single to start off any multi-race wagers, especially with the unpredictable Marathon next on the card. If you can beat her though, you'll get paid. I might try with a horse further down this list, but Beholder should win.
Note: Has the Juvenile Fillies listed as her second choice.
Ceiling Kitty (GB): Sire - Red Clubs *Ire (Red Rocks) Dam - Baldovina *GB (Tale of the Cat)
Well, she's got the best name thus far as we work our way down in alphabetical order.
Scenario:
You're coming home from the store. You got a new, cute, little kitten just the other day. You fully expect it to be waiting for you at the front door, meowing softly and looking adorable. You reach the front door and are ready to shower your little kitten with love. You open the front door. Your kitten is on the ceiling. What the @#$#?!?!?! Your kitten is on the ceiling. It is above you. It is defying gravity. It is...CEILING KITTY.
That would be both absurd and awesome. I'm not sure how I would react. I look forward to the day when I can find out.
Horses. Breeder's Cup. Refocus.
Ceiling Kitty, the horse version. This half sister to Juvenile Fillies Turf prospect, Sky Lantern, broke her maiden in May, going 5F on the synthetic surface at Kempton in 1:00 and change. She went on to surprise at 20-1 in her next two tries at 5F on turf. She won a Listed race at York (May) by 2 lengths, narrowly missing the course record. She then went on to win a Group II race at Ascot (June) by 1 length. Since then, she been seen finishing 4th in a Group II race at Doncaster and 7th in a Group I race at Newmarket.
She'll be trying dirt for the first time and any Breeder's Cup race is a tough spot for that kind of move. Her connections may just be taking a shot in the dark, but perhaps they see something here. Her sire, Red Clubs, was a successful sprinter. Although, her pedigree suggests she could stretch out a bit. Either way, everything points towards turf as her preferred surface.
Interestingly, she has more wins (3) than any other horse in this field (assuming Kauai Kate races in the Juvenile Fillies).
My take: I'll be keeping an eye out for any news on this filly as we approach the Breeder's Cup. She's got a tall task ahead and may be over matched. If I hear or see anything positive about Ceiling Kitty, there's a chance I would include her at the bottom of my exotics in the hopes of spicing things up with a big price.
Hazardous: Sire - Candy Ride *ARG (Ride the Rails) Dam - Malley Girl (Malek *Chi)
This 2YO gelding broke his maiden by 5 lengths, going 5F in a 12.5 Maiden Claimer on the synthetic surface at Golden Gate. He was then claimed in a 16K Claiming race at Golden Gate where he finished 4th after losing interest early on.
Hazardous won his first start off the claim in a 22.5 Claimer going 6F on the dirt at Santa Anita (October 14th). He won without doubt, finishing 13+ lengths ahead of his nearest competitor.
My take: Hazardous showed some talent and a liking for the Santa Anita dirt track winning last out, I guess that was enough for the connections to pony up the BC entry fee. While this horse has been making steady progress up the claiming ladder, I simply cannot support a jump from a 22.5 Claimer to a Breeder's Cup race. Not on my tickets.
Hightail: Sire - Mineshaft (AP Indy) Dam - Stormy Renee (Storm Cat)
Hightail is a 2YO colt that is 0 for his life. Not that this needs any more explanation, but for further perspective, consider the following: Alex Rodriguez batted .120 this postseason, he was 3 for 25. Horrendous, right? He practically got booed out of New York. Hightail's batting average is .000.
Now that I've given this colt the ARod treatment, let me say that he hasn't run horribly in his 8 attempts. He's been aggressively placed in one Grade III, two Grade II's, and one Grade I. He's also come close to winning a few Maiden Special Weights finishing 2nd by a head, 3rd by 4+ lenghts, and 3rd by 1+ lengths. His 6th place effort last out in the Grade I Breeders Futurity at Keenland was admirable.
I'm not sure what D. Wayne Lukas is doing with Hightail. I'm not sure what D. Wayne Lukas is doing in general these days as the placement of his horses is often confounding. Hightail might be a decent horse, but he's been over his head time and time again. Sounds like the perfect time to go from routing to sprinting and enter him in a Breeder's Cup Race. That last sentence was a lie, I'm sorry I lied to you.
My take: The following makes more sense than Hightail in the BC and is also hilarious:
Lloyd: That's a lovely accent you have. New Jersey?
Lady at bus stop: Austria.
Lloyd: Austria! Well, then. G'day mate! Let's put another shrimp on the barbie!
Lady at bus stop: Let's not.
Dumb and Dumber never fails to make me laugh. There always a scenario where a horse can pick up the pieces for 3rd, maybe Hightail can do that. He'll be off my tickets though as I think we're more likely to see Hightail giving his number to a filly in the stands around post time than hitting the board.
Kauai Kate: Sire - Malibu Moon (AP Indy) Dam - More Than Pretty (More Than Ready)
I'm putting her on the list, but am not going to write much about her. She's cross entered in the Juvenile Fillies and has that race as her first choice. If, for some reason, she ends up here, I'll revisit this post.
Quick note: I really laid into Hightail back there, sorry Hightail. I still don't think he'll hit the board, but the connections of Hazardous might be more deserving of the Dumb and Dumber scolding. There's nothing I can do about the ARod comparison though, the horse is actually batting .000. I think there's something about D. Wayne Lukas that loads my burrito with habanero sauce from hell. Perhaps it's his hat. I like funny and unnecessary hats though, so that can't be it...
Merit Man: Sire - With Distinction (Storm Cat) Dam - Precise Strike (Precise End)
As I followed the news regarding potential starters for this race, I had a vision. It was perfect. Dreamy. Perhaps divine. It was a cold beer after a tough day at work. It was the relief of a rest stop after downing a big gulp during a long road trip. It was the celebration that ensued after the Cubs won the World Series.
Actually, it wasn't the celebration post Cubs World Series. That's going to be a blur. I will transform from human to celebration monster when that happens. You only want to be with celebration monster if you're also a celebration monster. Humans will look poorly upon the celebration monster. Celebration monster will not care, the Cubs will have just won the World Series.
So, it was the relief of a rest stop after downing a big gulp during a long road trip...
It was Beholder and Kauai Kate blazing and battling on the front end of the Juvenile Sprint. Two fast fillies, out to prove which was fastest. However, occupied by their battle for speed supremacy, they went too fast.
As they made the turn for home, there was a horse named Merit Man sitting a couple lengths back. Merit Man didn't care about wiring the field. The only thing Merit Man cared about was winning. He had done it twice already; once going 5 1/2 furlongs on synthetics at Del Mar and once going 6F on the dirt at Santa Anita. He won the first by 3/4 and the second by 5 1/2 lengths. His performance at Santa Anita was impressive enough to earn him a 92 Beyer.
As Beholder and Kauai Kate tired, Merit Man pounced. He won the Juvenile Sprint by 2 lengths and proved himself a 2YO to be reckoned with.
Now, if only this dream could become a reality...
My take: Kauai Kate probably won't be in this race. Beholder will fly alone on the front end and Merit Man won't be able to run her down. I still like Merit Man enough to use him in any multi-race wagers though. Maybe I'll try and beat Beholder in some exotics with Merit Man on top as well, we'll see...
South Floyd: Sire - Any Given Saturday (Distorted Humor) Dam - Major Wager (Valid Wager)
2YO colt broke his maiden in late September on the Fairplex dirt course, going 6F on the front end and winning by 4. He next raced on October 6th at Santa Anita in the 100k Tim Conway Stakes on dirt and came in second, 5+ lengths behind the winner, Merit Man.
My take: South Floyd appears to be a decent colt who can flash some speed and win in the right spot. However, I don't think this is the right spot. He might take some money because of the Doug O'Neil - I'll Have Another effect, but I'm not too interested. The bottom line is he's slower than Beholder and already has proven to be 5 lengths short of Merit Man. He won't be on my muti-race wagers and will, at best, be filling out my 3rd spot with a few others in a trifecta.
Super Ninety Nine: Sire - Pulpit (AP Indy) Dam - Exogenetic (Unbridled's Song)
This 2YO colt was a nice winner in his only start thus far. He won a Maiden Special Weight going 7F on the Santa Anita dirt by sitting just off the leader before pulling away at the turn to win by 1 1/4 lengths. Scaling back to 6F for the Juvenile Sprint shouldn't be an issue
Bob Baffert.
Whenever you see that name this Breeder's Cup weekend, take notice.
If you're an NFL fan, you might remember the following highlight:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBHk9rc4hHc&noredirect=1
For all intensive purposes, that was the day Beast Mode was born.
When it comes to Santa Anita, Bob Baffert is Beast Mode.
Beast Mode trains Super Ninety Nine, that's enough for me to be wary.
My take: I think he's a notch below Beholder and Merit Man, but I'll likely include him in any multi-race wagers as he's better than the rest and trained by Beast Mode. If I can afford it, I'll add a Baffert horse to a ticket whenever and wherever possible. "If I can afford it," is the key part of that last sentence.
Sweet Shirley Mae: Sire - Broken Vow (Unbridled) Dam - Joyful Chaos (Rahy)
2YO broke her maiden at 5F on a sloppy Belmont track back in May. She's tried 2 races since: the Grade III Schuylerville Stakes at 6F on the Saratoga dirt and the Grade I Spinaway at 7F, also on the Saratoga dirt.
In the Schuylerville, she stalked the pace only to fade to 5th, 8 lengths from the winner.
She put in a much better effort in the Spinaway, closing from 9 back to finish 2nd, 2+ lengths away from the winner.
Sweet Shirley Mae hasn't had any "wow" moments at this point in her career. She did beat the talented Bern Identity while breaking her maiden. However, as previously mentioned, that was over a sloppy track and has to be discounted to an extent.
She has been working well, most recently firing a 5F bullet (1:00 and 4) on October 21st at Churchill.
My take: I think she's got the best shot of the two Wesley Ward trainees (Almost an Angel is the other), but ultimately is in too deep. She a contender to fill out the trifecta, a shot at routing might best suit her future interests.
And that rounds out the field for the Juvenile Sprint.
I'm dreading the Marathon, it's packed and impossible. I'm going to give it a go though and will hopefully have that preview up sometime tomorrow.
Happy horzing.
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